Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

In all my years of volunteering as a SKYWARN storm spotter (since the 1970s), I’ve vary rarely seen a convective outlook that indicated a high risk of severe weather in the Fort Wayne area. I don’t remember how many times I’ve seen it, but I’m fairly sure it’s been fewer than five. Suffice to say it’s very unusual in our area and when it happens, we should pay very close attention to the weather. Well, it happened this afternoon.

At 12:26 p.m. EDT, the Storm Prediction Center issued and updated Day 1 Convective Outlook that indicates a high risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow. The high risk area includes approximately the northern third of Indiana (including Fort Wayne), the northern fourth of Illinois and slivers of southern Michigan and northwestern Ohio. For IMO SKYWARN members, the high risk area includes almost all of quadrants one and two and all of quadrants three and four.

The main reason for the increase to high risk is the increase in the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (57.5 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. That risk has increased from 45 percent to 60 percent in the high risk area (see the map above).

There’s very little uncertainty that severe weather will occur, that SKYWARN spotters will need to activate and that the general public should be prepared for very damaging thunderstorms. Be ready to receive and respond to watches and warnings as they are issued later.