The Storm Prediction Center issued a mesoscale discussion at 9:20 p.m. EDT that indicates a weather watch might be needed within the following hour or two. The mesoscale discssion indicates an increasing risk for severe wind gusts across parts of northern Indiana, southern Michigan and northwestern Ohio between 9:20 p.m. and 1 a.m.
An Area Forecast Discussion issued by the National Weather Service northern Indiana weather forecast office (WFO) at 1:56 p.m. EDT indicated that the atmosphere remained stable in in that office’s county warning area (CWA), thus inhibiting development of severe storms. Much depends on how many breaks in cloud cover allow the sun to heat the earth’s surface, which would allow the air above to become unstable. For the moment, the WFO seems most concerned about the northwestern parts of its CWA (IMO SKYWARN Quadrant 4) from 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. EDT. The primary threat remains straight-line winds but the WFO writes that it can’t rule out an isolated tornado. As of 2:30 p.m. EDT, no mesoscale discussions or watches were in effect. Keep an eye on the situation as things warm up this afternoon!
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 58 mph or higher within 25 miles of a point. |
1:30 p.m. EDT update: The SPC issued an updated convective outlook at 12:25 p.m. EDT. The area outlines remain pretty much the same as they were in the earlier outlook. The 12:25 p.m. outlook contains the following language:
“Storms may increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as lift is enhanced by existing outflow boundaries. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards with these storms into this evening.”
Original post: There’s a slight risk of severe weather over the northern half of Indiana and Ohio and the southern half of Michigan between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. The main risk is damaging wind and hail but a tornado is possible. Casual weather observers should be alert for watches and warning through this afternoon and tonight. Make sure your weather alert radios work!
If you are interested in weather details, here’s a summary of relevant products from the National Weather Service (NWS):
At 8:47 a.m. EDT, the NWS Storm Prediction Center issued a Day One Convective Outlook that indicates a slight risk of severe weather over all of the county warning area (CWA) of the northern Indiana weather forecast office (WFO), including, of course, Fort Wayne. The outlook indicates a five percent risk of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the risk area, a 15 percent risk of hail of one inch or greater diameter, and a 15 to 30 percent risk of thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher. As you can see in the map above, the area of enhanced (30 percent) wind damage risk includes Allen, DeKalb and Steuben Counties of Indiana and much of northwestern Ohio. The text of the outlook discusses the possibility of bands or small clusters of sustained storms and/or weak supercells with bowing segments capable of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado.
At 4:59 a.m. EDT the Northern Indiana NWS WFO issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook that reads, “Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area today and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible during this period. Also, some of the storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds this afternoon and this evening. The outlook also indicates that spotter activation might be needed this afternoon and this evening.
In an Area Forecast Discussion issued at 6:43 a.m. EDT, the northern Indiana WFO wrote, “A warm front over northern portions of Illinois Indiana and Ohio early this morning will lift north into Wisconsin and Michigan today. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the front.”
The discussion also indicates that a shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the WFO’s CWA this afternoon through an air mass that will be moderately unstable by that time. The combination of 30 to 40 knot 0 to 6 kilometer shear and moderate instability suggests that some of the storms could be severe. In addition, another shortwave impulse tonight could combine with some lingering instability and convective outflow boundaries, resulting in thunderstorms again tonight. The best chances for those storms will be in the northern portion of the CWA, closer to the warm front.
Click the image for a full-size version.
Rev. Roger Reece, Executive Pastor of Associated Churches of Fort Wayne and Allen County, is advising that congregations and their members continue to “Pray, pay, and stay” in response to the tornado disaster in Moore, Oklahoma. In a news release, Reece explained why Associated Churches recommends monetary donations vs. sending goods and discussed the importance of affiliating with a coordinated relief organization before traveling to the disaster area. Read the news release.
The Indiana State Police (ISP) issued a warning today regarding con artists soliciting donations for Oklahoma tornado victims. The warning reads, “Hoosiers should be aware of people taking the opportunity in light of the recent catastrophic events in Oklahoma to play on the generosity of those willing to help out monetarily. Citizens are cautioned to be skeptical of those going from door-to-door or making individual phone calls to residents claiming to be collecting for tornado relief.” See the entire ISP warning.
As I wrote in an earlier post, if you don’t already have a favorite national response organization (e.g. the disaster response branch of your church denomination), a good way to choose a recipient for your donation is to visit the website of National Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster (NVOAD) and choose one of its member organizations. NVOAD members include the American Red Cross, Salvation Army and other well-known and lesser-known national organizations who respond to disasters.
Update: The convective outlook issued at 9:05 p.m. EDT indicates that there is no longer any risk of severe weather in Indiana or Ohio.
Once again today, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has determined that a slight risk of severe weather exists in a large part of Indiana. According to the Day One Convective Outlook the SPC issued at 8:44 a.m. EDT, a slight risk exists in the eastern half of Indiana and all of Ohio from 9 a.m. EDT today until 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, May 23. This includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrants one and two. The outlook forecasts isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, with the primary risk being wind and hail damage (15 percent probability of either). Things look a bit more intense in eastern Ohio and parts of Pennsylvania and New York, where the probability of damaging winds and hail is 30 percent.
The northern Indiana national weather service weather forecast office issues a Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at 5:01 a.m .EDT in which wrote that thunderstorms are likely, mainly this afternoon. The HWO also indicates that a few storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds, mainly east of U.S. 31. The HWO indicates that the office does not expect to activate storm spotters today.
It will be interesting to see what the SPC has to say in their updated convective outlook at around 12:30 p.m. EDT.
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| Yellow indicates a slight risk of severe weather until 8 a.m. EDT May 22. Green indicates non-severe thunderstorms. Source: SPC 2000Z Day 1 Convective Outlook. |
The Day 1 Convective Outlook the Storm Prediction Center issued at 3:58 p.m. EDT indicates no risk of severe weather for most of Indiana. Some counties near Fort Wayne continue to have a slight risk until 8 a.m. tomorrow. These include all of the following Indiana counties: LaGrange, Steuben, DeKalb, Allen and Adams. Also, portions of Noble, Whitley, Huntington, Wells and Jay. All of the following Ohio counties also have a slight risk: Paulding, Putnam, Van Wert and Allen. Other counties farther from the Fort Wayne area are also affected.
A recent forecast discussion from the northern Indiana weather forecast office indicates that storm development yet today is very unlikely. Showers and thunderstorms are much more likely during the early hours of tomorrow. The weather forecast office has not updated its Hazardous Weather Outlook since 6 a.m. today, when it wrote that storm spotter activation is not expected.
I realize that most readers of this blog are quite some distance from Oklahoma City, but my emergency management training nonetheless prompts me to write this. I want to help Moore and Oklahoma City recover from yesterday’s tragic and devastating tornado. You probably do, too. But unless you are part of a coordinated response, you’ll do more harm than good if you travel to the disaster area or send donated items there. That’s true no matter what special skills you have.
Emergency managers have a term for what happens when uncoordinated people or goods show up: “the second disaster.” Dealing with the second disaster can draw resources away from people in need. In some cases, so many uncoordinated goods (clothing, etc.) have arrived at disaster scenes that officials had no choice but to throw them in piles until they could be dumped in landfills. Uncoordinated volunteers likewise have gotten in the way, unintentionally interfering with recovery efforts and in many cases finding themselves with nothing helpful to do.
So what can you do? Here are my suggestions:
Do any of the three things above and you can have a positive impact on the victims of the Oklahoma tornado, without contributing to a second disaster.
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point, 9 a.m. EDT May 21 through 8 a.m. EDT May 22 |
Almost all of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather between now and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook from the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center. The slight risk area includes at least part of every county covered by the northern Indiana NWS weather forecast office. The outlook indicates, however, uncertainty as to whether storms will be able to develop today in air made more stable by last night’s thunderstorms in the middle Mississippi Valley. The biggest concern in Indiana is straight-line wind. In Indiana, the outlook forecasts a 15 percent chance of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. The hail probability is only five percent in most of Indiana and the tornado probability is only two percent.
The Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana weather forecast office issued early this morning indicates a slight chance of thunderstorms today and then a chance for thunderstorms tonight. The outlook indicates that an isolated storm tonight might become severe. It indicates that meteorologists do not anticipate a need for storm spotter activation.
As with yesterday, I advise checking the convective outlook as SPC updates it throughout the day and remain aware of any watches or warnings that the NWS issues.
