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Monthly Archives: April 2013
Update: Moderate risk of severe weather in Indiana tomorrow
This is an update to my post from earlier today.
In its early afternoon “Day Two Convective Outlook,” the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) strengthened its severe weather forecast for tomorrow, Thursday, April 18. The new outlook indicates that about half of Indiana has a moderate risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. April 18 and 8 a.m. April 19. The moderate risk area includes approximately the western half of the northern Indiana NWS office’s county warning area. In IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, only Whitley County is in the moderate risk area as of this outlook. The remainder of quadrant two is in a slight risk area. See the map below.
The probabilistic outlook is also more impressive than it was this morning. It increases the probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point to 45 percent in about half of Indiana. That probability remains 30 percent for most of the remainder of Indiana, including all Indiana counties of quadrant two, as well as Van Wert and Paulding Counties of Ohio. See the map below.
This is definitely a situation to keep our eyes on! My recommendations remain the same as in my earlier post today.
Significant severe weather event forecast for tomorrow
Friends, the outlook for severe weather in Indiana tomorrow, April 18, is significantly more severe than it was yesterday. Have a look at the map below, which is from the “Day Two Convective Outlook” that the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued early this morning.
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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. (More Info) |
As you can see, almost the entire state of Indiana has a 30 percent probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Plus (and new in today’s outlook), the same area of Indiana has a 10 percent or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. The SPC defines “significant severe weather” as hail of two inches or larger diameter, winds of 65 knots (75 mph) or stronger or tornadoes that rate as F2 or stronger.
In its Hazardous Weather Outlook today, the northern Indiana NWS officer writes, “A line of thunderstorms is expected to accompany a strong cold front moving from west to east across the area Thursday night. These storms may be severe with damaging winds the main threat.” The outlook indicates that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night.
I strongly recommend that you keep an eye on the SPC site for updated convective outlooks. And tomorrow, be prepared for watches and warnings. And while you’re at it, make sure your family and friends are prepared, as well.
Slight risk of severe weather Thursday
This morning’s “Day 3 Convective Outlook” from the NWS Storm Prediction Center indicates a slight risk of severe weather in almost all of Indiana between 7 a.m. EDT Thursday, April 18 and 7 a.m. EDT Friday, April 19.
As you can see in the map above, for most of Indiana, including all counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office, the outlook indicates a 15 percent probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. In parts of west central and southwestern Indiana, the probability is 30 percent.
It would be a good idea to keep an eye on SPC convective outlooks as Thursday approaches.
When did it start?
Radiogram preambles end with an optional time filed and mandatory date filed. We transmit both without introduction. We say all four digits of the time filed (if present), one digit at a time. If a letter is present to indicate the time zone, we say that letter phonetically. We transmit the date by saying the month name in full (even if it is abbreviated in the radiogram), then the day, one digit at a time. For example, we say “Indiana, zero nine one three Zulu, April one five.” After we say the last digit of the date, we pause and take a breath. That pause signals that the preamble is finished. We do not say “break” here. Next week: Addressing the addressee.
(This is the eighth in a series of short traffic-handling columns I submitted to the Kosciusko County ARES newsletter.)
Indiana severe weather remains possible today
Well, the map on today’s “Day One Convective Outlook” looks pretty much the same as yesterday’s day two outlook. It continues to indicate a slight risk of severe weather today in almost all of Indiana.
The text of the outlook indicates that a low is forecast to move eastward across northern Missouri, with a warm front extending eastward from the low across central Illinois, northern Indiana, northern Ohio and into Pennsylvania (the warm front is depicted as a stationary front on the surface chart below).
Forecast models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will initiate this afternoon along and to the north of the warm front, with more isolated storms possible south of it. The environment should support severe storm development south of the warm front. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threat, with some hail also possible.
The Northern Indiana NWS weather forecast office seems to concur, as its Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) indicates that spotter activation is not anticipated in its county warning area (CWA). The HWO that the Indianapolis office issued this morning, however, indicates that spotter activation is possible in its CWA late tonight or early tomorrow morning.
New NWS videos provide important weather safety info
The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Norman, Oklahoma has produced three YouTube videos to help keep people safe during severe weather. These videos are aimed at the general public, so if you’re a SKYWARN spotter, share them with your friends and family members and watch them yourself for some valuable reminders.
Significant outbreak forecast in tornado alley today
The Storm Prediction Center’s initial “Day One Convective Outlook” for today forecast “a significant severe weather event” from late this afternoon into this evening in parts of Oklahoma and Texas.
You can bet the roads in that area will be filled with storm chasers and spotters. Many will be broadcasting live video from their vehicles, so we can watch the action here in Indiana. You can find most of those video feeds on any of these sites: www.chasertv.com, www.severestudios.com or tvnweather.com.
This event also provides an opportunity to gain some early-season experience looking at the various weather and radar data as the storms develop.
Still looks like severe weather tomorrow
The “Day Two Convective Outlook” that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:57 a.m. EDT this morning continues to indicate a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow, Wednesday, April 10, over most of Indiana.
The outlook indicates the following probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point:
- Central Indiana: 30 percent
- Northern and southern Indiana: 15 percent
- Extreme northern and southeastern Indiana: 5 percent
The SPC wrote, “A broad swath of organized severe potential is expected during the period, with scattered damaging winds, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes appearing probable.”
First Indiana Severe Storm Risk of Season
Severe storm season could get underway in Indiana this week. Today, the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that outlines an area in which the SPC believes there is a slight risk of severe storms on Wednesday, April 10. The slight risk area is indicated by yellow in the map below.
As you can see, the yellow area covers almost the entire state of Indiana. It also covers all of the counties IMO SKYWARN has designated as “quadrant two,” which is the quadrant I represent on the IMO SKYWARN board of directors.
What does this mean to you? I recommend the following:
- Go to the SPC site tomorrow and check out the “Day Two Convective Outlook” for a more specific forecast on the risk of severe weather Wednesday.
- On Wednesday, check the SPC “Day One Convective Outlook” for even more specific information and if the risk of severe weather is still present in your area, be sure to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, your favorite broadcast station and/or other sources for any watches the SPC issues.
- If you’re a spotter, spend the next couple days making sure all your gear is ready to go for the season and review your training.
How are you preparing for storm season? Add a comment below!