I consider it irresponsible to publish long-range forecasts of storms on social media. It doesn’t matter what some computer-driven, numeric model of the atmosphere says might happen two or more weeks from now. It doesn’t even matter if more than one model agree. All that matters to me are the forecasts of highly trained meteorologists, who combine information gleaned from models with other knowledge to responsibly forecast the weather over a reasonable period (I consider anything specific more than seven days from now to be unreasonable). Yes, it might turn out that some weather enthusiast’s favorite model was “right” to forecast a heavy snow event four weeks from now. So what? That doesn’t make that enthusiast’s distribution of that model’s data responsible.
As well-known, Alabama broadcast meteorologist James Spann writes in his blog, “Most of the 2-3 week ‘forecasts’ are done by people not qualified to forecast the weather 2-3 days in advance. Most are young weather enthusiasts that, in their love for ice, snow, or severe weather, just ‘wishcast’ by throwing out model maps they have pulled down on various sites promoting the weather they love and desire without understanding the limitations of using those products, or the science behind them” (italicized emphasis added by me).
What’s the harm? As Spann puts it, “a banner headline about a snow storm in three weeks in the southern U.S. can create a societal impact.” For example, people unnecessarily reschedule needed medical treatments or important travel. These things really happen, because members of the general public don’t know how to distinguish reliable, science-based forecasts from the “wishcasts” Span describes above.
Plus, people deluge professional meteorologists (like Spann and National Weather Service staff members) with messages asking whether the irresponsible social media forecast is valid, wasting valuable time.
Beware of internet trolls:
There is currently NO WINTER STORM…NO SNOW or ICE in the forecast for our area. We will get cold (but dry).
— Brad Nitz (@BradNitzWSB) January 3, 2016
We are blessed in the United States, however, with the rights of free speech and freedom of the press. Therefore, I do not support any form of regulation that would restrict people from irresponsibly publishing long-range, model-based forecasts on social media. Nor would I support any attempt to restrict access to model data, to make it more difficult for people to share it irresponsibly. The best ways to reduce such irresponsible use of social media are to a.) refuse to share it and b.) attempt to help members of the general public understand the limits of the science.
Now, a little about me, my social media posts and why I do what I do:
I am not a meteorologist. If you’ve paid close attention to the weather information I’ve shared, you’ll see that anything related to forecasts is attributed to very reliable sources, most often the National Weather Service (NWS). I do not create my own forecasts and I refrain from commenting on the likelihood of some weather phenomena occurring, except to relay confidence levels of NWS meteorologists and probabilities published by, for example, NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) meteorologists. For example, you won’t see me publish anything like, “The SPC has this area under a moderate risk, but I’m not impressed by (enter some atmospheric measure here).”
I consider myself a journalist. I have worked in the past as a professional journalist and continue to use the skills I gained in that career in my current career as a public relations consultant. That’s why you’ll see attributions in my posts, so you’ll know who created the information I share. It’s also why you might recognize the use of Associate Press style in my posts.
I am a trained, volunteer SKYWARN storm spotter for the National Weather Service. In addition to the basic training that the NWS provides annually, I attend a wide variety of other seminars, at my personal expense, to learn more about meteorology. The knowledge I’ve gained helps me be a more effective storm spotter and it helps me better interpret meteorological information. It does not, however, qualify me to forecast the weather. Forecasting requires much more than knowing where to find map graphics based on computer-run numeric models of the atmosphere.
I am all about weather safety. It’s why I invest so much of my life in storm spotting, weather education and writing about weather. I want to do what I can to help protect my neighbors and others from severe weather and to help the NWS issue effective warnings.
Are you with me? Post a comment, and/or use the sharing buttons to share this “manifesto” with others.