WANE-TV Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Conder gives an excellent breakdown on his blog regarding when to expect what tomorrow and what factors might enhance or detract from the development of severe weather. Check it out.
When to expect what tomorrow
All posts by Jay Farlow
NWS provides video briefing on tomorrow’s severe weather forecast
Wednesday’s risk of severe weather increased from “slight” to “moderate”
The risk of severe weather in northern and central Indiana has increased from “slight” to “moderate,” according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:32 p.m. EDT today. The outlook indicates a 45 percent probability of severe weather with 25 miles of any point in the moderate risk area, up from 30 percent in the outlook issued early this morning. In addition. there continues to be a 10 percent risk of significant severe weather in the area. For more, including the definition of “significant” and the importance of the probability figures, see my blog post from earlier today.
For IMO SKYWARN members, the new moderate risk area includes all of quadrants two and three, the Indiana portions of quadrant four and most of the Indiana and Ohio portions of quadrant one.
As a SKYWARN storm spotter, I’ve been looking at these convective outlooks for more than a decade. In my experience, the SPC indicates a moderate risk in northern Indiana only a couple of times per year. So, a moderate risk is not something to ignore.
The next look at tomorrow’s severe weather probabilities comes at around 2 a.m. tomorrow, when the SPC issues its first Day 1 Convective Outlook of the day.
Signing off
After we’ve sent the last word of the radiogram text, we signal the receiving operator that the text is finished and the signature is coming. If you originated the message, remember that any salutation, like “73” or “sincerely,” is part of the text, not part of the signature. We signal the end of the text by saying “break,” but without a pause. We immediately begin sending the signature, which is usually one or more names and sometimes a title or call sign. As in the address, we spell all but the most common names. Remember, whenever we spell anything, we first say, “I spell,” and then spell phonetically. And just like elsewhere in the message, we say “amateur call” before a call sign and then transmit the call sign phonetically. After the signature, we say “end, more” if we have another message to send to the same station. Otherwise, we say, “end, no more.” So the end of a message would sound like, “73. Break. Jon, I spell Juliet, Oscar, November, amateur call whiskey nine x-ray alpha bravo, end, no more.”
(This is the 15th in a series of short traffic-handling columns I submitted to the Kosciusko County ARES newsletter.)
NWS to host live Twitter chat regarding tomorrow’s severe weather
The Northern Indiana National Weather Service weather forecast office plans to give citizens a behind-the-scenes look at what happens in the office before a severe weather event. The office will host a live Twitter chat in which meteorologists tweet about what they look at before such an event. They’ll also answer questions sent to them via Twitter.
The live Twitter chat is scheduled for 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. tomorrow, Wednesday, June 12.
If you have a Twitter account, simply follow @NWSIWX and you’ll see every tweet from the office. To ask a question, send a tweet that includes the @NWSIWX tag.
If you don’t have a Twitter account, you can’t ask questions but there are several ways you can monitor the chat.
Basic Web page
This Web page will show you every tweet that is either from @NWSIWX or mentions @NWSIWX. New tweets will not automatically appear but a click-able message will appear that indicates when new tweets have been posted. You can see them by clicking on that message.
Monitter.com
Monitter.com displays tweets that meet certain search criteria, as they appear. To use it, go to www.monitter.com. At the top of the page, in the space next to the words “Tweets containing,” replace the word, “monitter” with the string below:
from:nwsiwx OR @nwsiwx
Then, click the “add column” button and wait a few moments. The screen will eventually fill with the last 20 tweets that were either from @nwsiwx or mention @nwsiwx. New tweets that meet those criteria will appear automatically at the top, as they’re posted.
Widespread significant severe weather possible tomorrow
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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. (More Info) |
Update: The risk of severe weather in northern and central Indiana and northwestern Ohio tomorrow has increased from “slight” to “moderate.” Read more.
Update: National Weather Service to host live Twitter chat in advance of tomorrow’s severe weather. Read more.
There’s a fairly good chance of a widespread significant severe weather event across much of Indiana and nearby states tomorrow, Wednesday, June 12, according to various National Weather Service (NWS) sources, including the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2:05 a.m. today. The area of risk is indicated on the map above, from this morning’s outlook. Notice especially the “hatched” area, which includes Fort Wayne and all 37 counties covered by the Northern Indiana NWS weather forecast office. That hatched area indicates a 10 percent or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of any point in the area.
The SPC defines “significant severe weather” as EF2 or stronger tornadoes, damaging winds with speeds greater than 75 mph, or large hail two inches or greater in diameter. So, the SPC is saying that the probability of at least oneof those things happening in our area tomorrow is 10 percent. While 10 percent might not seem very high, compare it to the probability of these things happening on any given day of the year. For example, if we get significant severe weather on average one day per year (and the actual average is probably lower than that), then the normal probability of significant severe weather is 1/365, or about three percent. So, if three percent is the normal probability, a 10 percent probability indicates that significant severe weather is more than three times more likely! That 10 percent looks a little more important now, doesn’t it?
Here are some details from the convective outlook:
After a round of thunderstorms late tonight and/or early tomorrow morning, few of which are forecast to be severe, new storms are forecast to develop by tomorrow afternoon. The initial afternoon storms will likely be supercells. Supercells often produce tornadoes, so a few tornadoes will be possible, along with large hail and damaging winds. The SPC expects the storms to eventually evolve into one or more bowing lines of storms, which will shift quickly east southeastward across the area. As this occurs, the threat for damaging straight-line winds is forecast to increase, along with large hail. The bowing band or bands of storms are forecast to reach the upper Ohio River Valley by late tomorrow evening, with ongoing and potentially widespread damaging winds.
I’ve noted in this blog in the past that sometimes information issued by the local weather forecast office seems to put less emphasis on severe weather risk than does the SPC convective outlook. For example, sometimes when the SPC calls for a slight risk of severe weather, the Hazardous Weather Outlook from the local office reads, “spotter activation is not anticipated.” That is not the casewith tomorrow!
The Hazardous Weather Outlook that the Northern Indiana weather forecast office issued at 5:14 a.m. today says the following about tomorrow: “There is a good chance for severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado is possible as well.” In addition, it reads, “Spotter activation may be needed between late Tuesday night and late Wednesday night.” In addition, the Area Forecast Discussion that the local office issued at 4:05 a.m. today mentions a “potential high-impact event” Wednesday into Wednesday night.
So, if you’re a spotter, make sure you and your gear are ready. If you’re not a spotter, make sure you have fresh batteries in your weather alert radio and try to keep a television or radio playing during the day tomorrow, so you’ll know how the severe weather situation is progressing. As I have time, I’ll also post updates on this blog. The next time we’ll know more about tomorrow’s forecast will be around 1:30 p.m. EDT today, when the SPC issues an updated Day 2 Convective Outlook.
NWS Northern Indiana issues infographic regarding Wednesday severe weather possibility
The Northern Indiana National Weather Service office published the above infographic on its Facebook page at 4:49 p.m. EDT today. With the infographic, the office included the following text:
The next storm system will arrive on Wednesday bringing severe weather and heavy rainfall to portions of the southern Great Lakes. The exact location and severity of the risk is conditional on the location of the frontal boundary and surface heating on Wednesday. We will monitor this situation closely and provide updates with the latest information on Facebook and Twitter, as well as on our webpage at www.weather.gov/iwx.
Slight risk of severe weather Wednesday
The northern three fourths of Indiana, as well as large parts of nearby states, have a slight risk of severe weather Wednesday, according to the Day 3 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 3:30 a.m. EDT today. The outlook indicates a potential for a relatively broad zone of at least isolated hail and or damaging winds Wednesday afternoon. Also, computer models do not agree on how the weather system will move across the area, so forecasters say a more substantial wind threat might become evident tomorrow and/or Wednesday.
It would be a good idea to keep an eye on the SPC’s convective outlooks tomorrow and Wednesday. The SPC’s next outlook for the period will be its Day 2 Convective Outlook early tomorrow morning.
How Fort Wayne flood victims can reach the Red Cross for help
Rumors abound that some people who were displaced the June 1 flash flood at the Black Bear Creek Apartments on Reed Road in Fort Wayne are still having trouble finding assistance. The Northeastern Indiana chapter of the American Red Cross posted the following message on its Facebook page:
For anyone affected by the flooding at Black Bear Creek Apartments who has not yet been helped, please call our office at 484-9336 ext. 3. We are working with folks on an individual basis to get them assistance, referrals, etc. to help during this time.
I was involved in a conference call two days ago that included a representative of the Red Cross. The Red Cross person described how they have case managers helping each family that contacts them. The assistance available includes free laundry from a local dry cleaner and free furniture from a local furniture bank. But such services require a referral from the Red Cross, so victims must first make contact with the Red Cross. If you know anyone who needs help but has not yet reached the Red Cross, give them the phone number above.
Update: TV meteorologist might have been partially responsible for tornado traffic jam
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| News Channel 9OKC |
New information has surfaced about a massive traffic jam caused by residents of the Oklahoma City area attempting to flee a May 31 tornado. Reporter Alice Mannette of the Reuters wire service reports that Mike Morgan, chief meteorologist for Oklahoma City television station KFOR, told viewers during a tornado warning to get in their cars and drive away from a threatened storm. As Mannette writes, “The result was a ‘nightmare’ on the roads, Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin said.” See the full story.
I’m wondering why an 11-time weather broadcast award winner would fail to imagine what would happen if his viewers heeded such advice. I see this as a significant lapse in judgment. What do you think? Add your comment below.