I'm Jay Farlow. W9LW is my amateur (ham) radio call sign. I've been a ham since 1973. I've been a volunteer storm spotter for the National Weather Service SKYWARN program since the 1970s. I've also been a volunteer EMT and firefighter and member of a disaster medical assistance team. I advise the leadership team of Associated Churches Active in Disaster, a ministry of Associate Churches of Fort Wayne and Allen County. Learn more about w9lw at www.qrz.com/db/w9lw.
All national commercial mobile service providers (CMSPs) in the U.S. do their best to approximate National Weather Service warning polygons when relaying tornado warnings through the wireless emergency alert (WEA) system, according to an executive of CTIA, a wireless industry trade group. The result is geographic targeting that is more granular that the county-wide targeting of NOAA Weather Radio. And the industry is considering proposals to further improve the geographic targeting of WEA.
Information that CTIA assistant vice president for regulatory affairs Brian Josef provided to “W9LW’s Ramblings” contradicts a graphic that appeared on Twitter April 6 (below).
@spann instead of shrinking the size of the warning area w/ the polygon, it's now even larger w/ WEA! pic.twitter.com/TnxoEyFvi4
The graphic in the tweet originally appeared in a 2013 blog by WeatherCall, a company whose sales pitch includes pointing out shortcomings of WEA and other warning modalities. The tweet and blog post claim that wireless emergency alerts get sent by every CMSP tower in every county covered by a warning polygon, thus providing irrelevant warnings to more people than would receive the warning via NOAA Weather Radio.
Josef
This might have been true when WEA was first implemented in 2012, the CTIA’s Josef told this blog. And to this day, federal regulations for WEA continue to permit the practice of alerting entire counties. But shortly after WEA was implemented, carriers found ways to improve the granularity of alerts. Today, every national carrier geographically targets tornado warnings based on NWS polygons, Josef said.
The system remains less than perfect, however. The most common way carriers target the reception of WEA messages is by broadcasting them only from the towers that are physically located within the warning polygon, according to a 2015 report by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.
In the graphic example below, black hexagons represent the coverage areas of one carrier’s cell towers (in reality, coverage areas are not hexagonal) and the black dots in the center of each hexagon represent the towers themselves (in reality, towers are not usually spaced so evenly). The red polygon represents the boundary of an example tornado warning. Green hexagons represent the areas that would receive that warning via WEA, if the carrier sends it only via towers that are located within the polygon.
Selecting cell towers (black dots) within a tornado warning polygon (red) is the most common way mobile carriers geographically target wireless emergency alerts, according to a Johns Hopkins University study. W9LW graphic.
As you can see in the graphic above, people in the white areas inside the red polygon will not receive the warning, even though the warning includes their locations. People in green areas outside the red polygon will receive the warning, even though the warning does not include their locations.
“There’s always going to be some overshoot, there’s going to be some undershoot, but they’re trying to employ the techniques that best approximate that alert area,” Josef said of the mobile phone carriers.
Researchers at Johns Hopkins University suggest a new, more precise geo-targeting method for wireless emergency alerts in a report published last June that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security commissioned. It proposes arbitrary-size, location-aware targeting (ASLAT), through which carriers would broadcast an alert over an area larger than the warning polygon and individual mobile devices would determine whether to display the warning, based on each device’s own calculation of its location.
ASLAT would require some changes to existing WEA standards, cellular network functionality and mobile device behavior. Josef stressed the importance of assuring that any new targeting technique not increase data congestion on cell sites at a time when weather conditions would already increase device usage.
“The carriers are constantly looking at ways to further refine and enhance geo-targeting techniques,” Josef said. “We also want to make sure we don’t endanger what has been a successful service.”
Against all odds, Clem Schultz somehow survived a direct tornado strike on his Fairdale, Illinois home, while video-recording the storm. His video (above), while dramatic, provides a poor example. He needlessly decreased his chances of survival.
A story in the Arlington Heights, Illinois “Daily Herald” hints that Mr. Schultz was aware of a tornado warning and indicates that he did not believe the tornado would strike his village. It indicates that “there was no time for the 85-year-old to hurry back downstairs to the kitchen” where his wife was.
From the the first video frame in which we see the tornado, however, until the frame in which the utility pole begins to fall, nearly two minutes elapse. That should have been plenty of time for everyone in the house to seek shelter. The National Weather Service’s tornado warning provided the Schultzes even more time. It was issued 14 minutes before the tornado hit the village.
“There was no point in getting in the cellar,” the “Daily Herald” story continues, “which was basically a hole barely big enough to hold their furnace.”
Unfortunately, Mrs. Schultz did not survive, becoming one of the storm’s two deaths.
We’ll never know whether the outcome would have been different had Schultz and his wife gone to the safest place that their house afforded as soon as the NWS first issued the tornado warning. If there was no room for them in the furnace cellar, that might have meant going to the most interior room on the first floor, as experts routinely advise.
Sometimes people die, even when they follow expert tornado survival advice. But the sensible thing to do is to put the odds in your favor. When a tornado warning includes your home, take shelter as best you can.
Don’t gamble with your life by following follow Schultz’ example. Give yourself the best possible chance of survival.
“At the very least, any time a local public safety agency activates tornado sirens on its own (e.g. without an NWS warning), that agency should immediately notify the NWS that it has done so, and why. Why? Because without that notification, nobody who depends on NOAA weather radio or broadcast media for their warnings will know what’s going on!”
This weekend, I came across two bits of information to support that assertion.
On my way to the 2016 Great Lakes Meteorology Conference (GLMC), I listened to the most recent episode of the Carolina Weather Group webcast (see below). At about 23 minutes in, I heard Perry Boxx, news director of South Bend, Indiana’s Fox TV affiliate, relay a viewer’s story of what happened during an Indiana statewide tornado warning test. Boxx said that after the listeners heard outdoor warning sirens, they turned on their television to find out what was going on. The first two stations to which they tuned provided no information, but the Fox station was running a “crawl” that explained a test was underway.
During the GLMC, emergency planner Rob Dale of a county emergency management agency in Michigan mentioned that the International Association of Emergency Managers (IAEM) had published best practices for outdoor warning sirens. Among those best practices: When local jurisdictions activate sirens in the absence of a National Weather Service warning, the local officials should “Immediately notify the National Weather Service and local media!” (exclamation point included in the quoted document).
Dale chaired the IAEM committee that drafted the best practices document. I’ve invited him to write a guest post for this blog on the topic.
By the way, during a question-and-answer session, Dale said that outdoor warning sirens are irrelevant in urban areas, but the “public will never let them die.” It would appear that Dale agrees with my 2014 assertion that the outdated technology is ingrained in our culture.
The DuPage County (Illinois) Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management hosts an annual severe weather seminar in Chicago’s western suburbs to provide advanced training to SKYWARN storm spotters. This year’s 25th-annual event was March 12 at Wheaton College and was attended by approximately 500 people. Here are a few tidbits that I took from the seminar.
Spotters continue to be essential
“A dead spotter does no good for anybody,” said National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center lead forecaster Roger Edwards. He reassured spotters that they continue to be important, even in this high-tech age, but that it’s better to miss seeing something than to risk getting hurt.
Edwards suggested that spotters plan spotting locations in advance, so they’ll know where to go for the best safety as well as the best views. He also provided a list of questions spotters should ask themselves on a severe weather day, such as what types of storms to expect, how to expect them to move, etc.
A slide from a presentation SPC lead forecaster Roger Edwards provided during the 2016 DuPage County Advanced Severe Weather Seminar
Edwards instructed spotters that if they can hear a tornado, it’s too close and they should be in shelter. He also pointed out that even the inflow from a big tornado can damage or roll a vehicle.
Spotters can help protect others by sharing preparedness info
Warning coordination meteorologist Mike Bardou of the Chicago NWS office spoke about severe weather preparedness. He described a preparedness framework based on four verbs: Plan, Practice, Monitor and Act.
A slide from a presentation that NWS meteorologist Mike Bardou provided at the 2016 DuPage County Severe Weather Seminar: Plan, Practice, Monitor, Act.
He encouraged spotters to spread the word and help others prepare, especially employers, fellow employees, families, neighbors and friends. As I have written in this blog, it’s often the case that such people don’t know anyone else who knows as much about weather as do spotters. If spotters are passionate enough about weather safety to spend hours watching storms, they should be equally motivated to help others learn how to protect themselves from severe weather. That, in fact, is one of the main reasons I created this blog.
Busy interstate highways are a major concern
During a presentation on storm structure, NWS Chicago meteorologist Ben Deubelbeiss spoke on the danger of getting trapped by a tornado on a busy interstate highway. Imagine what any of Chicagoland’s busy interstates would be like if a tornado hit it during the afternoon rush hour! Deubelbeiss said many people have no idea what to do in that situation. He reminded the audience that crouching under an overpass is the worst thing to do, because the Venturi effect increases the speed of the wind as it blows through. This often leaves no option but to get as low as possible in a ditch while remaining mindful of the possibility of a flash flood during a high-precipitation storm.
Deubelbeiss encouraged spotters to always call in reports, even if the NWS has already issued warnings for the area. The NWS might have no other way to know about the tornado or other phenomena spotters see.
A slide from a presentation that NWS meteorologist Ben Deubelbeiss provided during the 2016 DuPage County Advanced Severe Weather Seminar depicting the “right-hand” rule for spotting supercell thunderstorms.
And when spotting typical supercells, Deubelbeiss reminded spotters that they should follow the “right-hand rule”; positioning themselves with the storm’s heavy rain and hail to their right and updraft to the left.
Time-lapse storm photography aids education
College of DuPage meteorology professor Victor Gensini demonstrated how time-lapse photography of storms facilitates identifying features. Here’s an example:
Gensini uses a digital SLR but he said that even a smartphone on a cheap tripod can suffice.
Gensini also spoke about his recently published research on forecasting tornado activity weeks in advance. A recent interview of Gensini in “Forbes” provides a good explanation.
For 35 years, broadcast meteorologist Tom Skilling of Chicago television station WGN has hosted an annual severe weather educational event in an auditorium on the campus of Fermilab, a U.S. Department of Energy particle physics laboratory in the Chicago suburb of Batavia.
The event is very popular among weather geeks and the members of the general public. I’ve heard many people talk about it, but have never attended, because four hours seems a long drive for a half-day event.
This year, however, WGN will stream the entire event live on the Web. And the speaker line-up is impressive:
Louis Uccellini, Director, National Weather Service
Russell Schneider, Director of the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma
Chris Strager, Central Region Director, National Weather Service
Donald J. Wuebbles, Harry E. Preble Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Illinois
Doug Sisterson & Dr. Seth Darling of Argonne National Laboratory, authors of the book “How to Change Minds on our Changing Climate”
Ed Fenelon, Meteorologist in Charge-National Weather Service-Chicago
Mike Bardou, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, NWS-Chicago
Brian Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist-National Weather Service Forecast Office-Valley, NE
Sean Lewis, WGN-TV anchor/reporter
Kimberly A. Smith, Director Emergency Preparedness, Commonwealth Edison
This year’s event is Saturday, April 2, from noon to 4:30 p.m. CDT. A free ticket is required and according to the event website, the tickets are gone, except for some that the station held back for promotional purposes.
But the station says it will stream the entire event live on WGNtv.com. You can also see tweets from the seminar with the hash tag #SkillingFermi.
If you can’t watch the seminar live, check the TV station’s website afterward. In past years, it has posted video segments from the event.
As a follow-up to my earlier video about steps outdoor events and venues must take to protect participants and spectators, here’s a short video about steps individuals can take to protect themselves from dangerous weather, featuring warning coordination meteorologist Michael Lewis of the northern Indiana National Weather Service Office.
The U.S. National Weather Service has been issuing tornado and severe thunderstorm watches and warnings since 1965. More than 50 years later, however, people still fail to fully understand the difference between a watch and a warning. You probably know some of them, I certainly do.
Map showing tornado watch for a large part of Indiana and Michigan for 11:20 a.m. to 8 p.m. Nov. 17, 2013.
In fact, before 1965, the NWS called what we now know as “tornado watches” “tornado forecasts.” A tornado watch indicates the possibility of tornadoes forming, just as a rain forecast indicates the probability of rain. Similarly, a severe thunderstorm watch indicates the possibility of severe thunderstorms forming. A watch does not mean these things are already happening, it means they could happen.
Like a forecast, a watch covers a period of many hours and usually covers a large area of at least several counties, if not several states. We should watch for possible dangerous weather in the near future.
A warning is an indication of immediate danger
Polygon indicating the area covered by a tornado warning for the Kokomo, Indiana area from 3:17 p.m. to 3:45 p.m. Nov. 17, 2013. Click the image to see a larger version.
It’s a call to take shelter now, because the tornado or severe thunderstorm is already happening. Depending on where you are, you might only have couple of minutes to protect yourself and your family. Or, you might have 10 or 15 minutes, if you’re at the far edge of the “warning polygon.” If you want to survive a tornado or a severe thunderstorm, don’t waste time seeking more information. When a warning comes out, take shelter immediately.
Because dangerous weather has already formed and is on its way, a warning usually covers a period of less than an hour and a small area that’s sometimes smaller than a county. The time to watch is over. It’s now time to heed the warning and take shelter.
Want even more lead time?
If you’re really interested in weather, or want to know even earlier whether severe weather is possible, there are two other NWS products to check out.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) usually issues a “mesoscale discussion” before it issues a watch. This product lets you know that the SPC is thinking about (or planning to) issue a watch, the geographical area of concern and the reasons. Some of the text of a mesoscale discussion can get pretty technical, but anyone can figure out from this product whether a watch is likely to be issued. If any mesoscale discussions are in effect, you can find them on the SPC website.
For even more lead time, the SPC issues “convective outlooks” that indicate the amount of risk of severe weather as much as eight days in advance. You can also find these products on the SPC website.
Note: Links to resources appear at the bottom of this page.
In 2011, straight-line winds of a severe thunderstorm blew down the temporary, steel roof over a concert stage at the Indiana State Fair. Seven people died. Four years later, two people died in New Hampshire, after thunderstorm winds blew down a circus tent.
The fact that people were still dying in weather-related incidents at public events four years after the State Fair tragedy prompted me to produce my first video blog, above.
At least two and a half hours before both the Indianapolis and New Hampshire storms, the National Weather Service issued severe thunderstorm watches. The agency issued specific warnings at least 10 minutes before each storm.
According to a report by the Indianapolis Star, no one advised the State Fair audience to seek shelter before the stage structure collapsed. At the time this story was produced, it was unclear from news reports whether circus employees even knew about the New Hampshire storm warning, or whether they instructed their audience to seek shelter.
Tragedies like these show how important it is for organizers of outdoor events to have effective plans, policies and procedures for severe weather.
“Every plan should have something in there that says, ‘We get information from one location, we’re able to process that in a timely manner, and move people,'” said Michael Lewis, warning coordination meteorologist at the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service.
“So when we work with them, we try to give them redundant sources of information,” Lewis continued. “Use our website. Use the different applications that are available on smartphones. Use NOAA weather radio, get the information and act quickly. The plan should look at how long will it take to you to move people from where they generally congregate to places of shelter, places of safety. Where are the gonna go and how long is it going to take to get there.”
In Fort Wayne, Indiana, the minor-league TinCaps baseball team routinely draws crowds of eight thousand or more.
“We do have a severe weather plan, very detailed,” said Brian Schackow, chief financial officer, Fort Wayne Tincaps. “And I think the best way to describe it is it just outlines the way we’re gonna communicate with people in the event of severe weather.”
“We have slides, we have weather announcements that our PA announcer will make, and it outlines how to handle that. Everything from just being in a thunderstorm warning — or a watch, I should say — all the way up to a tornado warning, which is the case right now where we would evacuate the ballpark,” Schackow continued.
A number of resources are available to event and venue professionals. For example, a trade organization called The Event Safety Alliance hosted a Severe Weather Summit in March of 2016. There, experts discussed all types of weather issues and how to develop plans.
Other resources include local emergency managers and public safety officials as well as local National Weather Service offices.
Event organizers and venue owners can help prevent future injuries and deaths by using such resources to adequately prepare for dangerous weather.
National Weather Service Press Release
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 14, 2016
INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK, MARCH 20-26
******** STATEWIDE TORNADO DRILLS MARCH 22nd ********
Syracuse, IN – So far, 2016 severe weather does not compare with the tragic March 2012 tornadoes to strike southern Indiana. Is that a sign for fewer tornadoes this year? “Indiana has tornadoes every year,” said Michael Lewis, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana. “But events like the deadly tornado of March 2012 point to the importance of being ready and responsive in the face of increasing hazardous weather events. Being resilient is part of the vision of the National Weather Service (NWS) as we grow toward becoming a Weather Ready Nation,” added Lewis.
The National Weather Service, in cooperation with the Indiana State Department of Homeland Security, Indiana State Police, Indiana Department of Education, the Indiana Broadcasters Association, the American Red Cross, and the amateur radio community, will conduct a Severe Weather Preparedness campaign March 20-26, 2016.
The 38th annual statewide test tornado drills will be conducted on Tuesday March 22 at 10:15 am and 7:35 pm EDT. Wednesday March 23 is the make-up drill day if severe weather postpones Tuesday’s drill. The drill will be initiated by TEST Tornado Warnings issued by NWS offices serving Indiana, triggering programmed electronic devices and activation of many outdoor warning sirens.
“Every family, every school, and every business should take time now to review or create a weather safety action plan,” said John Erickson, Public Information Officer of the Indiana Department of Homeland Security. “Having and practicing a plan increases your chances of surviving the storm,” added Erickson.
For further information, you may refer to: www.weather.gov/ind also:
A conference room full of storm spotters, emergency managers, meteorology students and other weather enthusiasts attended the 2016 Central Indiana Severe Weather Symposium March 7 on the campus of Butler University in Indianapolis. Photo from Twitter by Daniel McCarthy, NWS Indianapolis (@Torn8oDan).
The 2016 Central Indiana Severe Weather Symposium, hosted by the Indianapolis office of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Indiana chapter of the American Meteorological Society, provided a full day of interesting presentations. Below are a few highlights.
Squall lines made cooler
NWS meteorologist John Kwiatkowski presents on quasi-linear convective systems. Photo from Twitter by John Dissauer (@johndissauer).
John Kwiatkowski of the NWS Indianapolis office provided a presentation on Quasi-Linear Convective Systems (QLCS). Early in his talk, Kwiatkowski explained that this is the same type of storm that meteorologist formally called a “squall line.” Kwiatkowski joked that the new name sounds much cooler and that using it will impress members of the opposite sex.
QLCSs are much more common in Indiana than are supercell thunderstorms. Yet, as Kwiatkowski explained, spotting a QLCS in the field can be more dangerous than watching a discrete supercell out in the plains. Part of a QLCS can produce very damaging straight-line winds without appearing any different to a field observer than any other part of the storm. It can also produce essentially invisible, rain-wrapped tornadoes which, while small and brief, can easily overturn a spotter’s car. Kwiatkowski advised staying home and reporting damage after the storm passes.
It’ll never happen to me (and if it does, I can handle it)
Dr. Laura Myers presents on weather psychology. Photo by NWS Indianapolis
Dr. Laura Myers, a research scientist at the University of Alabama’s Center for Advanced Public Safety, provided a presentation titled “Weather Psychology of the Public: Integration of Social Science Research Results in Products and Practice.” She pointed out a variety of issues regarding how (and whether) people respond to weather warnings.
Myers said that a significant challenge of the weather enterprise is to make people understand that the benefits of safe behavior outweigh the costs and inconvenience.
Among the many discoveries she presented were some that will likely surprise weather enthusiasts:
Most people either don’t believe severe weather will ever affect them (it will always happen to someone else), or they believe that they are uniquely able to handle it.
Not everyone has a single, good warning modality, but people should have more than two.
Upon first learning of a weather alert, people often waste time seeking secondary confirmation, sometimes leaving insufficient time to take adequate shelter.
Most people don’t know what county they are in, even if they live there.
The tone, seriousness and message of broadcast meteorologists can make a difference in how people respond to threats.
Words like “emergency” in weather communications prompt more action but must be used sparingly.
During the 2012 derecho, severe thunderstorm warnings did not lead people to understand how dangerous the storm was. Many told surveyors that they would have behaved differently, had they known what the storm would do.
Storm spotters, chasers and other weather enthusiasts are in a unique position to help change how people respond to severe weather threats. As I’ve written before (see “Storm spotters as advocates“), we are often the trusted weather experts in our families and social circles. We can take advantage of that position to help those people understand how to stay safe.
Mobile home! Duck!
Well-known storm chaser Jeff Piotrowski discusses how he chased the 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado. Photo from Twitter by Kalie Pluchel (@KaliePluchelWX).
Well-known storm chaser Jeff Piotrowski discussed how he chased the 2013 El Reno tornado, the widest tornado in recorded history. His presentation included a great deal of compelling video of the storm.
At one point during the chase, a mobile home flew over Piotrowski’s car close enough to knock off a roof-mounted camera and antenna. Piotrowski saw it coming just in time to tell his wife to duck.
Piotrowski told the crowd that second-by-second situational awareness — including looking at the sky, not just a radar — is the only reason he survived the tornado. He said that during a chase, he never shuts off his car’s engine. And he reminded the audience that debris can travel four miles from tornado.
A peek behind the curtain
NWS meteorologist Amanda Lee begins a presentation on what goes on at the Indianapolis NWS office during severe weather events. Photo from Twitter by John Lobban Radio (@JohnLobbanRADIO)
NWS Meteorologists Amanda Lee and Marc Dahmer provided a behind-the-scenes look at how the their Indianapolis office works during severe weather, complete with entertaining video shot in the forecast office.
They showed how the NWS WarnGen software creates warnings based on choices the warning meteorologist makes.
They also showed how the general public can access data from post-event damage assessments, sometimes within minutes of data entry in the field. The public-view version of the NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit is at https://apps.dat.noaa.gov/StormDamage/DamageViewer/. It requires Adobe Flash, which makes it inaccessible on iOS devices.
Building a Weather-Ready Nation
NWS Indianapolis warning coordination meteorologist Dave Tucek discusses the NWS Weather-Ready Nation program. Photo from Twitter by Mike Alley (@malley57)
Dave Tucek, warning coordination meteorologist for the Indianapolis NWS office, provided an introduction the the agency’s “Weather-Ready Nation” (WRN) initiative. His talk included information on severe weather climatology and the value of organizations becoming WRN Ambassadors. Although the Ambassador designation is not available to individuals, Tucek pointed out that “We all have a part in spreading the weather-ready message.”
No green screen
Chris Wright of WTTV TV-4, Indianapolis, speaks about his career as a weather broadcaster. Photo from Twitter by John Dissauer (@johndissauer).
Chris Wright of WTTV TV-4, Indianapolis, spoke about his career as a weather broadcaster. Interesting tidbits from his presentation included:
His station uses no green screen. Instead of chroma key, his weather graphics appear on a bank of nine video monitors.
During severe weather break-ins, it’s not unusual for a superior to tell him to keep talking. Wright told the crowd that if they see a weather break-in that lasts for more than 30 seconds, it wasn’t the weather person’s decision.
News anchors often don’t watch the weather segment of a newscast. That’s why the weather person recaps the forecast as part of his hand off back to the anchors.
Social media has significantly increased the workload in TV weather departments. Wright said that keeping up with Twitter, Facebook, blogs, etc. sometimes requires having two people per shift.
At colleges, students aren’t always the biggest emergency management challenge
IUPUI emergency manager Carlos Garcis talks about weather hazard management on a college campus. NWS photo.
Carlos Garcia, emergency manager for the Indiana University – Purdue University Indianapolis campus, talked about how the campus prepares for severe weather.
He said federal law requires universities to warn their communities of threats in a timely manner. He pointed out that college students are adults, who need to accept responsibility for their decisions in emergency situations. But he also indicated that students aren’t necessarily the biggest challenge with regard to appropriate response to notifications. That’s one reason the campus invested in software for all campus computers that can automatically display alerts. The software will even interrupt a professor’s PowerPoint presentation, displaying a notification to everyone in the classroom of the situation.
Photo gallery
A gallery of photos of the event from Gregory Chaney is available on Flickr.
