Tag Archives: Indiana State Fair

Are weather radar apps dangerous?

One well-known meteorologist thinks they can lead untrained users to draw unsafe conclusions

Dr. Kevin Kloesel shows archived radar data from the 2011 Indiana State Fair stage collapse tragedy. The white “X” on his slide indicates the location of the fairgrounds. An outflow boundary (thin, blue line) is depicted ahead of a line of severe thunderstorms.

Anyone who makes decisions based on radar data displayed on mobile apps is essentially “acting the part of a meteorologist without the background,” and that will result in deaths, asserted meteorologist and certified emergency manager Dr. Kevin Kloesel, during the Ohio State University (OSU) Severe Weather Symposium March 28.

Kloesel, who works in the University of Oklahoma Office of Emergency Preparedness, was the final speaker of the day-long symposium, organized by OSU meteorology students.

A non-meteorologist will most likely be using a simple phone app, and tend to focus on the “scary colors” and lowest elevation tilt of the radar, Kloesel told symposium attendees.

As a case in point, Kloesel discussed a 2011 incident at the Indiana State Fair, where winds in advance of a severe thunderstorm caused the collapse of a temporary structure that held spotlights and other equipment above an outdoor concert stage, killing seven people.

Kloesel showed archived radar data from that night, beginning with an 8:35 p.m. scan (see photo above) that depicted a line of heavy precipitation and ahead of that, a thin line representing an outflow boundary. Meteorologists know that such boundaries can indicate gust fronts with strong but usually sub-severe (less than 58 mph) straight-line winds.

Kloesel displays archived radar data from 8:53 p.m. the night of the Indiana State Fair stage collapse. This data shows an outflow boundary apparently right over the fairgrounds, which are represented in Kloesel’s slide by a white “X.”

Archived radar data depict the outflow boundary directly over the fairgrounds at 8:53 p.m (see photo above).

The deadly collapse, however, happened at approximately 8:46 p.m., much earlier than most untrained users of radar data might expect, in part because the “scary colors” had not yet arrived. Even non-meteorologists who recognize outflow boundaries likely don’t know that gust fronts on the ground occur ahead of where outflow boundaries appear on radar.

Kloesel reminds attendees that radar data shows what is happening at the height of the radar beam, which can be quite different than what’s happening directly below that point.

This is because a radar beam rises in reference to the ground as it travels from its source antenna (see photo above). Radar images therefore show what’s happening at the height of the radar beam, not at the ground

Trained meteorologists understand that they cannot assume that what’s happening on the ground will be indicated by what the radar depicts at beam height. Most other users of radar data on mobile apps probably lack that understanding, Kloesel said.

It’s too easy for people to rely on weather data via a mobile app, Kloesel said rather than seek expert consultation. The disconnect between the availability of data and the ability to correctly interpret such data is what led Kloesel to assert that radar app use can be dangerous.

This information is of particular importance to anyone who is responsible for the safety of people attending any outdoor mass gathering. All such events and venues should rely on trained meteorologists, versus others’ interpretations of what they see on mobile apps.

One way event leaders can get such support is through the National Weather Service’s Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS). The best way for event organizers to access IDSS is usually through a local emergency manager (i.e. director of an emergency management or homeland security agency).

Kloesel shared a quote from a lawyer involved in a weather-related injury case, who said that such incidents are “preventable with prudent caution and control of events in the face of available meteorological information.”

Video blog: Preventing event weather injuries & deaths

Note: Links to resources appear at the bottom of this page.

In 2011, straight-line winds of a severe thunderstorm blew down the temporary, steel roof over a concert stage at the Indiana State Fair. Seven people died. Four years later, two people died in New Hampshire, after thunderstorm winds blew down a circus tent.

The fact that people were still dying in weather-related incidents at public events four years after the State Fair tragedy prompted me to produce my first video blog, above.

At least two and a half hours before both the Indianapolis and New Hampshire storms, the National Weather Service issued severe thunderstorm watches. The agency issued specific warnings at least 10 minutes before each storm.

According to a report by the Indianapolis Star, no one advised the State Fair audience to seek shelter before the stage structure collapsed. At the time this story was produced, it was unclear from news reports whether circus employees even knew about the New Hampshire storm warning, or whether they instructed their audience to seek shelter.

Tragedies like these show how important it is for organizers of outdoor events to have effective plans, policies and procedures for severe weather.

“Every plan should have something in there that says, ‘We get information from one location, we’re able to process that in a timely manner, and move people,'” said Michael Lewis, warning coordination meteorologist at the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service.

“So when we work with them, we try to give them redundant sources of information,” Lewis continued. “Use our website. Use the different applications that are available on smartphones. Use NOAA weather radio, get the information and act quickly. The plan should look at how long will it take to you to move people from where they generally congregate to places of shelter, places of safety. Where are the gonna go and how long is it going to take to get there.”

In Fort Wayne, Indiana, the minor-league TinCaps baseball team routinely draws crowds of eight thousand or more.

“We do have a severe weather plan, very detailed,” said Brian Schackow, chief financial officer, Fort Wayne Tincaps. “And I think the best way to describe it is it just outlines the way we’re gonna communicate with people in the event of severe weather.”

“We have slides, we have weather announcements that our PA announcer will make, and it outlines how to handle that. Everything from just being in a thunderstorm warning — or a watch, I should say — all the way up to a tornado warning, which is the case right now where we would evacuate the ballpark,” Schackow continued.

A number of resources are available to event and venue professionals. For example, a trade organization called The Event Safety Alliance hosted a Severe Weather Summit in March of 2016. There, experts discussed all types of weather issues and how to develop plans.

Other resources include local emergency managers and public safety officials as well as local National Weather Service offices.

Event organizers and venue owners can help prevent future injuries and deaths by using such resources to adequately prepare for dangerous weather.

Some resources