Gusts often seem stronger than they are

Editor’s note: Below is an article I wrote that appears in this month’s Allen County HamNews, the joint newsletter of three Fort Wayne amateur radio clubs.

A garden-variety thunderstorm blew through Allen County at midday on July 18. It was strong enough to prompt the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (IWX) to issue a Special Weather Statement but not a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Gusts during the storm resulted in someone reporting to IWX that winds were “well above severe limits.” IWX meteorologists doubted that, with good reason.

Beaufort wind cart for estimating wind speeds

At about the same time, my rooftop anemometer on the northeast side of Fort Wayne measured a peak gust of 22 mph — well below the 58-mph minimum severe thunderstorm criteria. I was surprised, because that gust really sounded more impressive from inside our house. When I looked around our yard, however, I didn’t even see any small twigs on the ground.

The “well above severe limits” wind estimate prompted IWX to share on Twitter a post with a picture of the Beaufort Wind Chart, which helps storm spotters estimate wind speeds based on what they see the wind do. That chart indicates that winds in the range of 55 to 63 mph (around the lower end of severe storm criteria) usually uproot trees and cause “considerable structural damage.” I doubt that the person who reported winds “well above severe limits” observed either of those phenomena.

Research published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology and reported on by the online earth and space news site Eos, indicates that people “overestimated the speeds of wind gusts—on average, by about one third of the gusts’ actual speeds.” Researchers also found flaws in the Beaufort scale, but as IWX tweeted, “informed estimates are much better than a guess.”

We storm spotters don’t always have access to anemometer data, but there’s something we can do that will be much more valuable to the National Weather Service than even informed estimates of wind speeds. What is it? The answer is fairly simple and the clue comes from the Beaufort chart.

Rather than reporting an estimated wind speed, we can report what we see the wind do.

If we see the wind uproot a tree, we can report that a tree was uprooted, its approximate size and whether it appeared to be healthy or rotted.

If we see the wind damage a structure, we can report the visible damage (e.g. shingles blown off a roof).

We don’t even need to look up wind speeds on the Beaufort chart, because National Weather Service meteorologists have their own copies. A clear description of what the wind did enables National Weather Service meteorologists to determine — with the help of radar velocity data — what the wind speed probably was. More importantly, a clear description of wind damage helps meteorologists determine whether to issue or extend a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

Are weather radar apps dangerous?

One well-known meteorologist thinks they can lead untrained users to draw unsafe conclusions

Dr. Kevin Kloesel shows archived radar data from the 2011 Indiana State Fair stage collapse tragedy. The white “X” on his slide indicates the location of the fairgrounds. An outflow boundary (thin, blue line) is depicted ahead of a line of severe thunderstorms.

Anyone who makes decisions based on radar data displayed on mobile apps is essentially “acting the part of a meteorologist without the background,” and that will result in deaths, asserted meteorologist and certified emergency manager Dr. Kevin Kloesel, during the Ohio State University (OSU) Severe Weather Symposium March 28.

Kloesel, who works in the University of Oklahoma Office of Emergency Preparedness, was the final speaker of the day-long symposium, organized by OSU meteorology students.

A non-meteorologist will most likely be using a simple phone app, and tend to focus on the “scary colors” and lowest elevation tilt of the radar, Kloesel told symposium attendees.

As a case in point, Kloesel discussed a 2011 incident at the Indiana State Fair, where winds in advance of a severe thunderstorm caused the collapse of a temporary structure that held spotlights and other equipment above an outdoor concert stage, killing seven people.

Kloesel showed archived radar data from that night, beginning with an 8:35 p.m. scan (see photo above) that depicted a line of heavy precipitation and ahead of that, a thin line representing an outflow boundary. Meteorologists know that such boundaries can indicate gust fronts with strong but usually sub-severe (less than 58 mph) straight-line winds.

Kloesel displays archived radar data from 8:53 p.m. the night of the Indiana State Fair stage collapse. This data shows an outflow boundary apparently right over the fairgrounds, which are represented in Kloesel’s slide by a white “X.”

Archived radar data depict the outflow boundary directly over the fairgrounds at 8:53 p.m (see photo above).

The deadly collapse, however, happened at approximately 8:46 p.m., much earlier than most untrained users of radar data might expect, in part because the “scary colors” had not yet arrived. Even non-meteorologists who recognize outflow boundaries likely don’t know that gust fronts on the ground occur ahead of where outflow boundaries appear on radar.

Kloesel reminds attendees that radar data shows what is happening at the height of the radar beam, which can be quite different than what’s happening directly below that point.

This is because a radar beam rises in reference to the ground as it travels from its source antenna (see photo above). Radar images therefore show what’s happening at the height of the radar beam, not at the ground

Trained meteorologists understand that they cannot assume that what’s happening on the ground will be indicated by what the radar depicts at beam height. Most other users of radar data on mobile apps probably lack that understanding, Kloesel said.

It’s too easy for people to rely on weather data via a mobile app, Kloesel said rather than seek expert consultation. The disconnect between the availability of data and the ability to correctly interpret such data is what led Kloesel to assert that radar app use can be dangerous.

This information is of particular importance to anyone who is responsible for the safety of people attending any outdoor mass gathering. All such events and venues should rely on trained meteorologists, versus others’ interpretations of what they see on mobile apps.

One way event leaders can get such support is through the National Weather Service’s Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS). The best way for event organizers to access IDSS is usually through a local emergency manager (i.e. director of an emergency management or homeland security agency).

Kloesel shared a quote from a lawyer involved in a weather-related injury case, who said that such incidents are “preventable with prudent caution and control of events in the face of available meteorological information.”

Demand strong for volunteer storm spotter class

Library expands meeting space to accommodate weather enthusiasts

Strong pre-registrations for a free class on how to recognize and report severe weather phenomena led a local organization to add meeting space to accommodate more people. The Allen County branch of the national Amateur Radio Emergency Service® (ARES) will host the class at the Allen County Public Library, 900 Library Plaza, Fort Wayne, Thursday, Feb. 21 at 6:30 p.m. By Feb. 12, only nine seats were still available, so the library agreed to expand the meeting space, adding 30 seats.

Scheduled speakers include meteorologists from ABC21, Fort Wayne’s NBC, Fox 55 and WANE 15. Allen County Office of Homeland Security director Bernie Beier and Consolidated Communications Partnership deputy director John Chavez also plan to speak.

The class is free and open to the general public, but because fewer than 40 seats are still available, Allen County ARES requests all who plan to attend, to register in advance at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/allen-county-storm-spotter-education-tickets-54685721465

“This two-hour class will provide attendees the knowledge they need to help protect their communities from severe weather like tornadoes,” said Jim Moehring, emergency coordinator (team leader), Allen County ARES. “Although we are a ham radio organization, people need not be hams to be storm spotters, so we welcome anyone who is interested in weather.”

Moehring said the “ground truth” that volunteer spotters provide is essential to the process through which the National Weather Service (NWS) issues storm warnings. He pointed out that this remains true despite advances in weather radar, because the beam from the NWS radar site near North Webster is 2,500 feet or more above the ground by the time it reaches Allen County.

Traditionally, meteorologists from the NWS Northern Indiana office near North Webster have presented spotter training every spring in Fort Wayne. Changes in the office’s responsibilities, however, led it to change its training schedule. As a result, NWS meteorologists won’t be in Fort Wayne until autumn of 2019 and then not again until spring of 2021.

“We wanted to assure that our members and members of the general public have a chance to receive storm spotter education before this spring’s severe weather season,” Moehring said. “We therefore decided to devote our group’s February meeting to a spotter class and to invite everyone to attend. Because NWS meteorologists aren’t available, we’re thrilled that four TV stations in Fort Wayne are sending meteorologists to help teach the weather-related material.”

A complete list of speakers and their topics follows:

  • Jim Moehring, Allen County ARES emergency coordinator (team leader): Introduction to the NWS SKYWARN program and the importance of volunteer storm spotters.
  • Jay Farlow, Allen County ARES assistant emergency coordinator for SKYWARN: How storm warnings are issued and distributed. Also, storm spotter reporting methods and best practices.
  • Charles Ward, experienced storm spotter: Best practices to remain safe while storm spotting.
  • Bernie Beier, Allen County Office of Homeland Security director: The role of the Allen County Office of Homeland Security with regard to severe weather.
  • John Chavez, Consolidated Communications Partnership deputy director: The role of the Consolidated Communication Partnership (911/dispatch) in severe weather events.
  • Caleb Saylor, Fox 55 weekend meteorologist: Thunderstorm basics, including how storms form and become severe.
  • Caleb Chevalier, ABC21 weekend morning meteorologist: Types of thunderstorms, including those most likely to create tornadoes. Also, radar apps and interpretation.
  • Jon Wilson, Fort Wayne’s NBC weekend meteorologist: Thunderstorm hazards, including straight-line winds, large hail, flash flooding and tornadoes.
  • Nicholas Ferreri, WANE 15 chief meteorologist: Cloud identification, including distinguishing scary-looking but benign weather from true threats that spotters should report.

About the Amateur Radio Emergency Service

The Amateur Radio Emergency Service® (ARES) is a program of ARRL, the national association for amateur radio®. ARES establishes teams of volunteer, licensed amateur (ham) radio operators in counties throughout the country, each of which is led by an emergency coordinator. These volunteer teams train and practice to provide communication services to their communities in the event of a disaster. Through a memorandum of understanding signed by ARRL and the National Weather Service (NWS), ARES volunteers also commit to communicating weather information that assists the NWS in the creation of weather warnings. In addition, ARES volunteers practice their communication skills by providing two-way radio communications at public events, such as marathons, walk-a-thons, etc. More information about ARES is available on the ARRL website at http://www.arrl.org/ares.

Fort Wayne organization to host class for volunteer storm spotters

Speakers to include meteorologists from four TV stations

Collaborating for public safety: Meteorologists from four competing Fort Wayne TV stations meet with ARES leaders to help plan storm spotter education. Counterclockwise from lower left: Jim Moehring, KB9WWM, ARES emergency coordinator; Caleb Saylor Fox 55 Weekend Meteorologist; Nicholas Ferreri, WANE 15 Chief Meteorologist; Jon Wilson, Fort Wayne's NBC Weekend Meteorologist; Caleb Chevalier, ABC21 Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Photo by Jay Farlow, ARES Assistant Emergency Coordinator
Collaborating for public safety: Meteorologists from four competing Fort Wayne TV stations meet with ARES leaders to help plan storm spotter education. Counterclockwise from lower left: Jim Moehring, ARES emergency coordinator; Caleb Saylor, Fox 55 Weekend Meteorologist; Nicholas Ferreri, WANE 15 Chief Meteorologist; Jon Wilson, Fort Wayne’s NBC Weekend Meteorologist; Caleb Chevalier, ABC21 Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Photo by Jay Farlow, ARES Assistant Emergency Coordinator

Jan. 25, 2019 – Fort Wayne – A local organization invites anyone who is interested in weather to attend a free class on how to recognize and report severe weather phenomena to benefit public safety. The Allen County branch of the national Amateur Radio Emergency Service® (ACARES) will host the class at the Allen County Public Library, 900 Library Plaza, Fort Wayne, Thursday, Feb. 21 at 6:30 p.m. Scheduled speakers include meteorologists from ABC21, Fort Wayne’s NBC, Fox 55 and WANE 15. Allen County Office of Homeland Security director Bernie Beier and Consolidated Communications Partnership deputy director John Chavez also plan to speak.

The class is free and open to the general public, but seating is limited. ACARES therefore requests all who plan to attend, to register in advance at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/allen-county-storm-spotter-education-tickets-54685721465

“This two-hour class will provide attendees the knowledge they need to help protect their communities from severe weather like tornadoes,” said Jim Moehring, emergency coordinator (team leader), ACARES. “Although we are a ham radio organization, people need not be hams to be storm spotters, so we welcome anyone who is interested in weather.”

Moehring said the “ground truth” that volunteer spotters provide is essential to the process through which the National Weather Service (NWS) issues storm warnings. He pointed out that this remains true despite advances in weather radar, because the beam from the NWS radar site near North Webster is 2,500 feet or more above the ground by the time it reaches Allen County.

Traditionally, meteorologists from the NWS Northern Indiana office near North Webster have presented spotter training every spring in Fort Wayne. Changes in the office’s responsibilities, however, led it to change its training schedule. As a result, NWS meteorologists won’t be in Fort Wayne until autumn of 2019 and then not again until spring of 2021.

“We wanted to assure that our members, and members of the general public have a chance to receive storm spotter education before this spring’s severe weather season,” Moehring said. “We therefore decided to devote our February meeting to a spotter class and to invite everyone to attend. Because NWS meteorologists aren’t available, we’re thrilled that four TV stations in Fort Wayne are sending meteorologists to help teach the weather-related material.”

A complete list of speakers and their topics follows:

  • Jim Moehring, Allen County ARES emergency coordinator (team leader): Introduction to the NWS SKYWARN program and the importance of volunteer storm spotters.
  • Jay Farlow, ACARES assistant emergency coordinator for SKYWARN: How storm warnings are issued and distributed. Also, storm spotter reporting methods and best practices.
  • Charles Ward, experienced storm spotter: Best practices to remain safe while storm spotting.
  • Bernie Beier, Allen County Office of Homeland Security director: The role of the Allen County Office of Homeland Security with regard to severe weather.
  • John Chavez, Consolidated Communications Partnership deputy director: The role of the Consolidated Communication Partnership (911/dispatch) in severe weather events.
  • Caleb Saylor, Fox 55 weekend meteorologist: Thunderstorm basics, including how storms form and become severe.
  • Caleb Chevalier, ABC21 weekend morning meteorologist: Types of thunderstorms, including those most likely to create tornadoes. Also, radar apps and interpretation
  • Jon Wilson, Fort Wayne’s NBC weekend meteorologist: Thunderstorm hazards, including straight-line winds, large hail, flash flooding and tornadoes.
  • Nicholas Ferreri, WANE 15 chief meteorologist: Cloud identification, including distinguishing scary-looking but benign weather from true threats that spotters should report.

About the Amateur Radio Emergency Service

The Amateur Radio Emergency Service® (ARES) is a program of ARRL, the national association for amateur radio®. ARES establishes teams of volunteer, licensed amateur (ham) radio operators in counties throughout the country, each of which is led by an emergency coordinator. These volunteer teams train and practice to provide communication services to their communities in the event of a disaster. Through a memorandum of understanding signed by ARRL and the National Weather Service (NWS), ARES volunteers also commit to communicating weather information that assists the NWS in the creation of weather warnings. In addition, ARES volunteers practice their communication skills by providing two-way radio communications at public events, such as marathons, walk-a-thons, etc. More information about ARES is available on the ARRL website at http://www.arrl.org/ares.

Media Contact

Jay Farlow, volunteer public information officer, ARRL
arsw9lw@gmail.com

WeatherBrains podcast features amateur radio’s role in the weather enterprise

This blog’s author, Jay Farlow, W9LW, joining the WeatherBrains podcast Jan. 7, 2019, via Google Hangouts from his office/radio shack at home in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

A popular, weather-related podcast recently recorded an episode devoted to the role of amateur (ham) radio in the weather enterprise, especially storm spotting. WeatherBrains is a long-running, well-respected podcast hosted by Alabama broadcast meteorologist James Spann. It recorded the ham radio podcast January 7.

Ham radio has been deeply involved in the National Weather Service’s (NWS) SKYWARN® program since its inception, according to research done by Brian E. Smith, the warning coordination meteorologist at the NWS Omaha/Valley weather forecast office (WFO) in Nebraska. During the infamous Palm Sunday tornado outbreak of 1965, a tornado did F4 damage in northern Toledo, Ohio. Afterward, a ham who was also a meteorologist in the Toledo office of what was then called the U.S. Weather Bureau — Merle Kachenmeister, WA8EWW — organized ham radio operators in his area to report severe weather to the Toledo office via radio. This is considered the birth of the SKYWARN program, according to Smith.

WeatherBrains episode number 677 is available for viewing or listening on the the podcast’s website. Listeners can also access the audio-only version on their mobile devices via their favorite podcast apps.

The author of this blog was one of the guests who WeatherBrains invited to discuss ham radio. Other guests included Jeff Stapel, W8SWX of the Muskegon, Michigan SKYWARN organization and Rob Macedo, KD1CY, who is both the Section Emergency Coordinator of the ARRL Eastern Massachusetts section and director of operations for the VOIP Hurricane Net.

During the show, I mentioned several resources that might be valuable to audience members. For your convenience, I’ve listed them below:

  • ARRL, the national association for amateur radio®: This website contains a wealth of information about amateur radio, what hams do, and how to become a licensed ham radio operator.
  • The tornado outbreak of Aug. 24, 2016: This page on the website of the NWS northern Indiana WFO includes the radar rotation tracks I showed during the podcast, as well as other information about how the outbreak affected my home area.
  • ARRL Ham Radio License Manual: This book contains all the information you need to pass the exam and get your ham radio license, so you can join other storm spotters on the air.
  • Storm Spotting and Amateur Radio: This book is a valuable resource for anyone who is interested in either storm spotting or how to use ham radio while spotting. It includes information on resources, training, equipment, safety, storm spotter activation procedures and more.
  • Allen County (Ind.) SKYWARN Net Operations Manual: This PDF document discusses in great detail how the hams of the Fort Wayne and Allen County, Indiana area organize their SKYWARN net — i.e. on-air conference call — during severe weather events.

A couple resources I didn’t have time to get into regard equipment (although Rob mentioned some price ranges). Below are links to some equipment options you might consider, if you’re thinking about getting into ham radio:

  • Baofeng UV-5R handheld radio: Available on Amazon for only $25, this will get you on the air. Like any handheld radio, its geographical range is limited, but as long as you’re close enough to what hams call a “repeater” station, you can talk to people dozens of miles away.
  • AnyTone AT-778UV Mobile radio: Available on Amazon for $130, this radio mounts in your vehicle and connects to your vehicle’s 12-volt poser source. It transmits with 25 watts, versus the 5 watts of most handheld radios, enabling you to communicate while farther from the repeater station. It requires an external antenna, sold separately. Antenna options include those with temporary magnetic mounts and those that can mount more permanently on a trunk lid without drilling holes.

The “big three” brands of ham radio equipment are Icom, Kenwood and Yaesu. Their radios, while well respected, tend to be priced higher on the new market than the Chinese brands above. Note, however, that there’s a large market for pre-owned radios. These can be obtained through some dealers (who take trade-ins), at ham radio flea markets and through online auction sites.

Allen County Group to Host Spotter Training

Anyone can help protect their community from weather threats like tornadoes. In just a couple of hours, you can learn how severe weather forms, how to distinguish truly threatening weather from scary-looking but harmless clouds, and how to report severe weather so the rest of your community can be adequately warned.

The Allen County chapter of the Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES) invites all interested persons to attend its Feb. 21 meeting, from 6:30 to 8:30 p.m., at the main, downtown branch of the Allen County Public Library, The meeting will be devoted to severe weather and storm spotting. You don’t have to be a ham radio operator and you don’t need any prior knowledge of meteorology or communications.

Scheduled speakers include ABC21 Weekend Morning Meteorologist Caleb Chevalier, WANE 15 Chief Meteorologist Nicholas Ferreri, FOX 55 weekend Meteorologist Caleb Saylor, Fort Wayne’s NBC Weekend Meteorologist Jon Wilson, Allen County Office of Homeland Security director Bernie Beier, Consolidated Communications Partnership (911/public safety dispatch) director David Bubb, Allen County ARES team leader Jim Moehring and Allen County SKYWARN ham radio net manager Jay Farlow.

Although representatives of the National Weather Service (NWS) are not available for this meeting, we will follow the NWS SKYWARN curriculum with enhancements specific to Allen County. NWS does not plan to teach a spotter class in Allen County until autumn of 2019.

This event is free and only about 100 seats are available. If you plan to come, please register at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/allen-county-storm-spotter-education-tickets-54685721465, so ARES will know if registrations approach the room’s capacity.

This meeting will be valuable to anyone who is interested in severe weather, including those who have previously received storm spotter training. More information is available on the host’s Facebook page.

NWS northern Indiana changes SKYWARN® spotter training schedule

Allen County ham radio group to invite general public to its own spotter class

National Weather Service meteorologist Sam Lashley trains SKYWARN storm spotters in Fort Wayne, Feb. 2017
National Weather Service meteorologist Sam Lashley trains SKYWARN storm spotters in Fort Wayne, Feb. 2017

National Weather Service (NWS)-led SKYWARN® storm spotter training will no longer occur every spring in Allen County, Indiana. A new training rotation developed by the northern Indiana NWS office (IWX) means that the next two sessions in Allen County will occur in the fall of 2019 and the spring of 2021. The Allen County Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES), however, plans to devote its February 21, 2019 meeting to spotter education, and to invite all interested persons.

Beginning in 2019, IWX will offer 21 spotter training sessions per year, versus the 22 to 26 sessions it previously conducted annually in February, March and April. The new schedule divides the sessions into two seasons; 12 in the spring season and nine in the late summer or early autumn. Autumn sessions will allow IWX to focus on late-season severe weather and winter weather observations.

“While this is a change, it is not a degradation of service,” IWX warning coordination meteorologist Michael Lewis wrote via email.

Lewis encouraged county emergency managers to promote spotter training sessions held in neighboring counties, because the NWS program contains no information that’s specific to any county. For example, Allen County residents who wish to attend an IWX session in the spring of 2019 may travel to Adams, Huntington or Noble County.

Increase in other services led to change

IWX created the new training schedule to provide more balance to the office’s operational workload, according to Lewis. He explained that an increase in the amount of Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) that the office provides to core partners made necessary the workload rebalance. For example, over the past four years, IWX staff members have attended:

  • District and sector emergency management meetings (including five Indiana Department of Homeland Security districts, one Ohio sector and one Michigan district)
  • Local emergency planning committee (LEPC) meetings (every active county LEPC meeting within the IWX coverage area at least once)
  • More than 40 exercises (including full scale, functional, tabletop and discussion based)
  • State and International EMA meetings
  • Countless other public outreach events throughout the 37 counties within the IWX service area.

County-specific training encouraged

In addition to promoting spotter training in neighboring counties, Lewis encouraged county emergency managers to conduct county-specific storm spotter training during “off years.” During such events, emergency managers could provide basic information about county-specific warning operations, such as outdoor warning siren policies, notification services, activation procedures, sheltering instructions, reporting methods, etc. To support such county-specific training, IWX will make available recorded spotter training segments (four- to six-minute videos) from the most current version of its spotter program.

In a November email to Allen County ARES, a representative of the Allen County Office of Homeland Security (ACOHS, Allen County’s emergency management agency) indicated that the office had no plans to conduct the suggested county-specific storm spotter training.

ARES to host training

Allen County ARES wants to give its members, other hams and members of the general public an opportunity to receive spotter education before the next spring severe weather season. For that reason, ARES plans to devote its Feb. 21 meeting to spotter education and to welcome all interested persons, including hams who are not ARES members and non-hams.

The meeting is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. at the main branch of the Allen County Public Library. The agenda is still being developed, but ARES leaders plan to present some of the information themselves based on NWS materials. ARES has also invited others from the community to provide presentations, including ACOHS, the City/County Consolidated Communication Partnership (our local 911 public safety dispatching center), and broadcast meteorologists from all four Fort Wayne TV newsrooms.

At the time of this writing, two TV stations have agreed to send meteorologists and the 911 dispatch center has agreed send a representative to discuss how severe weather affects its operations.

Mark Feb. 21 on your calendar and watch this blog for more information.

Info resources for SKYWARN storm spotters

Tonight, I was the guest speaker at a meeting of the Allen County Amateur Radio Technical Society on the topic in the title above. I promised the members present that they would not have to write down all the web URL’s I mentioned, because i’d post them here. Each item in the bulleted list below links directly to the respective online resource.

Do you really understand the danger of lightning?

lightning
PC: Mr. Shane Lear, Orange Australia. Creative Commons

We had a doozy of a lightning show in Fort Wayne tonight. Fortunately, it appears (at the time of this writing) that our immediate area sustained no significant storm damage. But tonight’s storm — and the way I saw people react to it — prompts me to share some life-or-death information about lightning.

All thunderstorms — including those that aren’t technically severe — produce lightning and are therefore dangerous.

Lightning kills

As of  this date, lightning has killed at least 15 people in the United States so far this year, according to National Weather Service (NWS) statistics.  They ranged in age from seven to 75. Three of the victims were women, The rest were men and a boy. Many were doing some kind of gardening, like mowing, tree trimming, etc. All had one thing in common; they were outdoors when lightning struck.

Needless deaths

Making these statistics even sadder is the fact that most lightning deaths are preventable. Rarely does a lightning bolt strike a person without lightning (and its accompanying thunder) first occurring some distance away. That’s why the NWS came up with the slogans, “when thunder roars, go indoors” and “see a flash, dash inside.” Many people who were killed by lightning simply didn’t seek appropriate shelter soon enough.

Important lightning facts

All thunderstorms — including those that aren’t technically severe — produce lightning and are therefore dangerous. So many thunderstorms happen every year that the NWS issues warnings only for those that it expects to produce damaging winds or gusts of at least 58 mph and/or hail of one inch or more in diameter. No matter how much lightning a storm produces, if it doesn’t have strong enough winds or big enough hail, it doesn’t get a severe thunderstorm warning. Nonetheless, it’s potentially deadly, because of its lightning.

Lightning can strike even if it’s not raining. In fact, it can strike as far as 10 miles from any rainfall.

If you can hear thunder, therefore, you are in danger, unless you are already in an appropriate shelter (see below).

Avoiding lightning strikes

Staying alive in a thunderstorm is relatively simple, according to an NWS brochure. If you hear thunder, even a distant rumble, seek safety immediately. Fully enclosed buildings with wiring and plumbing are best.

A hard-topped metal vehicle with the windows closed is also safe.

Sheds, picnic shelters, tents or covered porches do not protect you from lightning.

Stay inside until 30 minutes after the last rumble of thunder.

If you are at a sporting event and venue officials recommend taking shelter, do it. Many venues have access to lightning data and suspend competition and advise sheltering when the first strike is detected within a certain number of miles of the venue. Such policies, when heeded, help give spectators and participants adequate time to reach appropriate shelter.

Spread the word

Help stop needless lightning deaths by making sure your family and friends understand the danger and what to do. Share this helpful NWS website and/or one or more of the resources to which it links.

 

Why was a commercial tour boat on a Mo. lake during a severe thunderstorm warning?

Update: A grand jury has indicted the boat captain, reports the AP: https://apnews.com/97a50539272942bd9306a5937dc81cfb

I’m saddened and angered by an apparently weather-related tragedy in Branson, Missouri yesterday. News reports indicate that at least 11 people died when an amphibious, commercial tour boat capsized on Table Rock Lake during a warned severe thunderstorm.

Reports indicate that the incident occurred at around 7 p.m. CDT, well after the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Springfield, Missouri placed the area (shaded in yellow on the map above) under a severe thunderstorm warning at 6:32 p.m. The initial warning was in effect until 7:30 p.m., well after the incident occurred. The warning indicated that 60 mph wind gusts were possible as well as “damage to roofs, siding, and trees.”

This warning should not have surprised anyone, because the NWS Storm Prediction Center issued a severe thunderstorm watch for the area at 11:20 a.m. that was in effect until 9 p.m.

As I write this, I find no answers in news media reports to the following critical questions:

  • Did the amphibious tour boat enter the water before or after the NWS issued the severe thunderstorm warning?
  • Were operators of the tour boat aware of the severe thunderstorm warning before the boat capsized?
  • If the boat was already in the water when the NWS issued the warning, did it immediately head for shore at that time?
  • Does Ripley Entertainment, the company that owns the tour boat, have policies regarding how its operators become aware of and react to weather watches and warnings?

I hope investigators uncover and report answers to these questions. In the interim, this tragedy unfortunately reminds me of fatal incidents elsewhere in the country in which organizations apparently ignored severe thunderstorm warnings:

One would hope that incidents like those would teach organizations everywhere to enact and enforce severe weather policies and procedures, and to take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously. I fear that yesterday’s tragedy could be a sign that some organizations still haven’t learned this lesson.

Severe weather, ham radio & anything else I feel like writing about