The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service issued an updated “Hazardous Weather Outlook” at 3:34 p.m. EDT in which it advises SKYWARN storm spotters to “be prepared to send in reports as storms move through the area.” The full text appears below.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-061945-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014 /234 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 65 MPH...BUT LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY. COMBINED
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEND IN REPORTS AS STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. 

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

$$

INZ003-MIZ077-061945-
LA PORTE-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014 /234 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 65 MPH...BUT LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY.
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH WAVES AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE ON
SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEND IN REPORTS AS STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. 

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

$$

LMZ043-046-061945-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch, in effect until 9 p.m. EDT, for much of northern Indiana and nearby states. It includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two except for Blackford and Jay Counties. The verbatim watch announcement appears below.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 495
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   305 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     NORTHERN ILLINOIS
     NORTHERN INDIANA
     SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
     NORTHWEST OHIO
     LAKE ERIE
     LAKE HURON
     LAKE MICHIGAN

   * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
     900 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST
   SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS MICHIGAN TO 65 MILES WEST OF
   VALPARAISO INDIANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
   THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF ESE-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE WRN SUBURBS
   OF CHICAGO AND WRN LWR MI. DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR ALONG
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXES AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN NRN IN/SRN
   MI. BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS NOW FORMING E OF ROCKFORD IL MAY
   INTENSIFY AS IT OUTPACES SFC COLD FRONT AND ENCOUNTERS GREATER
   LOW-LVL INSTABILITY IN THE CHICAGO AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THESE
   STORMS...AND THOSE FORMING FARTHER E...WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
   ORGANIZE INTO N-S LINES. ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED BOWS WILL POSE A RISK
   FOR DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY SVR HAIL THOUGH EARLY TNGT GIVEN VERY
   WARM/MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT...RESIDUAL EML...AND 35+ KT WSWLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL 700-500 MB FLOW.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 26035.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 495
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   305 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   ILC031-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-105-197-060100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0495.140905T1905Z-140906T0100Z/

   IL 
   .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   COOK                 DUPAGE              FORD                
   GRUNDY               IROQUOIS            KANE                
   KANKAKEE             KENDALL             LAKE                
   LIVINGSTON           WILL                


   INC001-003-007-017-033-039-049-069-073-085-087-089-091-099-103-
   111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-060100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0495.140905T1905Z-140906T0100Z/

   IN 
   .    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ADAMS                ALLEN               BENTON              
   CASS                 DE KALB             ELKHART             
   FULTON               HUNTINGTON          JASPER              
   KOSCIUSKO            LAGRANGE            LAKE                
   LA PORTE             MARSHALL            MIAMI               
   NEWTON               NOBLE               PORTER              
   PULASKI              ST. JOSEPH          STARKE              
   STEUBEN              WABASH              WELLS               
   WHITE                WHITLEY             


   MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-049-057-059-063-065-067-075-
   077-087-091-093-099-115-125-145-147-149-151-155-157-159-161-163-
   060100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0495.140905T1905Z-140906T0100Z/

   MI 
   .    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ALLEGAN              BARRY               BERRIEN             
   BRANCH               CALHOUN             CASS                
   CLINTON              EATON               GENESEE             
   GRATIOT              HILLSDALE           HURON               
   INGHAM               IONIA               JACKSON             
   KALAMAZOO            LAPEER              LENAWEE             
   LIVINGSTON           MACOMB              MONROE              
   OAKLAND              SAGINAW             SANILAC             
   SHIAWASSEE           ST. CLAIR           ST. JOSEPH          
   TUSCOLA              VAN BUREN           WASHTENAW           
   WAYNE                


   OHC003-039-043-051-063-069-077-095-123-125-137-143-147-161-171-
   173-060100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0495.140905T1905Z-140906T0100Z/

   OH 
   .    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ALLEN                DEFIANCE            ERIE                
   FULTON               HANCOCK             HENRY               
   HURON                LUCAS               OTTAWA              
   PAULDING             PUTNAM              SANDUSKY            
   SENECA               VAN WERT            WILLIAMS            
   WOOD                 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BENTON CASS DE KALB ELKHART
View the full statement on the NWS website.

…HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING… HAZARDOUS WEATHER… * THE HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. IMPACTS…
View the full statement on the NWS website.

A large part of Indiana and parts of nearby states continue to have a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS)  Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:08 p.m. EDT.

The slight risk area continues to include almost all of the 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. The SPC widened the slight risk area a bit since it’s 9 a.m. EDT outlook.

The latest outlook indicates that scattered strong to severe storms might produce locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail across parts of the lower Great Lakes and Midwest later this afternoon into tonight.

The atmospheric set-up appears favorable for the development of lines and/or small clusters of mainly multi-cell storms from parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into Lower Michigan and the lower Great Lakes later today and into tonight, as surface heating further destabilizes the atmosphere along and ahead of an approaching cold front.

Storms that form will pose a conditional risk for damaging wind and possibly severe hail, given the very warm and humid environment near the Earth’s surface. Small bows and/or arcing line segments are possible. Although the strongest storms should occur before mid to late evening, strong activity could persist into late tonight and early Saturday over Ohio and the lower Great lakes.

An updated “Hazardous Weather Outlook” issued at 12:05 p.m. EDT by the northern Indiana NWS office continues to indicate that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon and tonight.

The next outlook update from the SPC is due out by 4 p.m. EDT.

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service expects isolated thunderstorm development ahead of an approaching cold front, according to an email message the office sent to SKYWARN storm spotters and others this morning. “We expect that the severe threat will be ISOLATED and SHORT LIVED,” the email reads.

The message also provides the following timing and impact information:

Timing

• Through 3 p.m. EDT: Isolated showers and thunderstorms with gusts greater than 30 mph and lightning.
• 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. EDT: More organized lines of thunderstorms with isolated severe thunderstorm potential.
•  6 p.m. to 9 p.m. EDT: Threat of thunderstorms shifts south and east across the region with best organization and threat southeast of a line from Monticello, Indiana to Hillsdale, Michigan.

Impacts

Numerous fairs/festivals and football games will be going on during this time frame. All venues should be making plans for thunderstorm development, monitor NWS Web pages and have NOAA Weather Radio programmed and operational.

See an update to this story.

All of northeastern Indiana has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:46 a.m. EDT. The slight risk area also includes parts of northwestern Ohio, southern Lower Michigan, Illinois and Missouri. It includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrants one, two and three and the southeastern half of quadrant four.

The primary threats in the slight risk area are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater and large hail of one inch or more in diameter. The tornado threat today is negligible (less than a 2 percent probability), according to the SPC.

Storms are most likely in the afternoon and evening. The risk of severe weather will decline rapidly after 11 p.m. EDT.

SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon and tonight, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:21 a.m.

The SPC will update its severe weather outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT.

Much of Indiana continues to have a marginal risk of severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening, according to an updated “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:20 p.m. EDT.

The probability of severe weather (5 percent) continued to fall below the SPC’s “slight risk” criteria. As you can see on the map above, the SPC adjusted that 5 percent area so that it no longer includes southern Indiana.

Our next look at the severe weather outlook for tomorrow comes when the SPC issues its first “Day 1 Convective Outlook” of the day tomorrow. It’s due out by 2 a.m. EDT.