Slight risk of severe weather Wednesday throughout Indiana, IWX CWA

8 Sep Day 3 Convective Outlook map
Probability of any form of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday and 8 a.m. EDT Thursday. Red area: 30 percent (high end of “slight risk” criteria). Yellow: 15 percent (low end of slight risk). Brown: 5 percent (below “slight risk” criteria). Unshaded: Severe weather not expected. Highlighted counties: County warning area of northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 3 Convective Outlook” issued at 3:30 a.m. EDT.

The entire state of Indiana and the entire 37-county warning area (CWA) of the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) office have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday and 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, according to a “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that the NWS Storm Prediction Center issued at 3:30 a.m. EDT.

“Severe storms are possible Wednesday across southern portions of the Great Lakes region into parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. This will be accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts, possibly a couple of tornadoes, and could impact the Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis and Cleveland metropolitan areas,” SPC meteorologists wrote.

As you can see in the map above, the probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point are highest in northern Indiana, where they reach 30 percent, the high end of the SPC’s “slight risk” criteria. Day three outlooks provide combined probabilities and therefore indicate the likelihood of any of the following forms of severe weather:

  • Tornadoes.
  • Damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of at least 58 mph.
  • Large hail of at least one inch in diameter.

Our next look at the severe weather outlook for Wednesday comes early tomorrow morning, when the SPC issues its first “Day 2 Convective Outlook” of the day.

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