Slight risk area widens slightly at midday

1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook map
Risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Yellow area: Slight risk. Green: Thunderstorms, but none expected to be severe. Highlighted counties: County warning area of northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook” issued at 12:08 p.m. EDT

A large part of Indiana and parts of nearby states continue to have a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS)  Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:08 p.m. EDT.

The slight risk area continues to include almost all of the 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. The SPC widened the slight risk area a bit since it’s 9 a.m. EDT outlook.

The latest outlook indicates that scattered strong to severe storms might produce locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail across parts of the lower Great Lakes and Midwest later this afternoon into tonight.

The atmospheric set-up appears favorable for the development of lines and/or small clusters of mainly multi-cell storms from parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into Lower Michigan and the lower Great Lakes later today and into tonight, as surface heating further destabilizes the atmosphere along and ahead of an approaching cold front.

Storms that form will pose a conditional risk for damaging wind and possibly severe hail, given the very warm and humid environment near the Earth’s surface. Small bows and/or arcing line segments are possible. Although the strongest storms should occur before mid to late evening, strong activity could persist into late tonight and early Saturday over Ohio and the lower Great lakes.

An updated “Hazardous Weather Outlook” issued at 12:05 p.m. EDT by the northern Indiana NWS office continues to indicate that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon and tonight.

The next outlook update from the SPC is due out by 4 p.m. EDT.

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