The slight risk area grew at 9 a.m. EDT. See an important update to this story.
Part of northeastern Indiana and Northwestern Ohio have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:57 a.m. EDT.
The primary threats in the slight risk area are damaging straight-line winds of 58 mph or greater and/or hail of one inch or more in diameter. A small tornado risk also exists. The outlook indicates some forecaster uncertainty, however.
Any storms that form in the northern Indiana NWS county warning area, are most likely from midday to afternoon, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana office issued at 6:14 a.m. EDT. That outlook also indicates that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed today.
As you can see on the map above, Fort Wayne is barely in the slight risk area, which includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two except Whitley County and northern Allen County, Ind. The quadrant two counties that are in the slight risk area have the following probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point:
- Tornado: 2 percent
- Damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater: 15 percent
- Hail of one inch or more in diameter: 15 percent.
The next SPC outlook for today is due by 9 a.m. EDT.