Trees downed in northern Fort Wayne during yesterday’s storm

I always tell people, “Don’t ignore severe thunderstorm warnings!” Yesterday’s tree and power line damage in northern Fort Wayne provide a good example of why. Here are some tweets:

Power lines are down around the region. This picture was taken near Coliseum and Anthony Blvd in Fort Wayne. pic.twitter.com/qdh1UCxeE1
— Audra Streetman WFFT (@audrastreetman) June 18, 2014

More storm damage – this time near Coliseum and Hobson in Fort Wayne. Several trees knocked down. pic.twitter.com/NUxWJwCgR9
— Audra Streetman WFFT (@audrastreetman) June 18, 2014

@NWSIWX @weatherjesse pulling on to ipfw this morning dodging around tree limbs and a tree pic.twitter.com/8XaHXwF3RQ
— Austin Carson (@StormTracker29) June 19, 2014

Thunderstorms but no severe weather expected for next several days

Thunderstorm clip art

There’s a chance of thunderstorms in northeastern Indiana through Friday and again Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, but forecasters do not expect severe storms, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) office issued at 5:23 a.m. EDT.

Nonetheless, an isolated strong wind gust or small hail might be possible today or tonight. And Friday’s storms could produce very heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Severe thunderstorm watch 321 until 9 p.m. EDT

Map depicting counties included in severe thunderstorm watch 321

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM
UNTIL 900 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FLINT MICHIGAN TO 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TOLEDO OHIO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...A QLCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

INC001-003-033-039-049-069-085-087-099-103-113-131-141-151-169-
179-183-190100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0321.140618T1755Z-140619T0100Z/

IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS ALLEN DE KALB
ELKHART FULTON HUNTINGTON
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE MARSHALL
MIAMI NOBLE PULASKI
ST. JOSEPH STEUBEN WABASH
WELLS WHITLEY


MIC015-023-025-027-037-045-049-059-065-075-077-087-091-093-099-
115-125-147-149-155-161-163-190100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0321.140618T1755Z-140619T0100Z/

MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARRY BRANCH CALHOUN
CASS CLINTON EATON
GENESEE HILLSDALE INGHAM
JACKSON KALAMAZOO LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND SHIAWASSEE
ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH WASHTENAW
WAYNE


OHC003-039-051-063-069-095-125-137-161-171-173-190100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0321.140618T1755Z-140619T0100Z/

OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HANCOCK HENRY LUCAS
PAULDING PUTNAM VAN WERT
WILLIAMS WOOD

Severe weather watch in effect: Severe Thunderstorm Watch #321

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 321

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

155 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

The National Weather Service has issued severe thunderstorm watch

321 in effect until 9 PM EDT /8 PM cdt/ this evening for the

following areas

in indiana this watch includes 18 counties

in northern indiana

adams allen in de kalb

elkhart fulton in huntington

kosciusko lagrange marshall

miami noble pulaski

st. joseph in starke steuben

wabash wells whitley

in michigan this watch includes 4 counties

in southwest michigan

branch cass mi hillsdale

st. joseph mi

in ohio this watch includes 8 counties

in northwest ohio

allen oh defiance fulton oh

henry paulding putnam

van wert williams

this includes the cities of, akron, albion, angola, antwerp…

archbold, auburn, bass lake, berne, bluffton, bluffton…

bremen, bronson, bryan, cassopolis, coldwater…

columbia city, culver, decatur, defiance, delphos, deshler…

dowagiac, elkhart, fayette, fort jennings, fort wayne…

francesville, fremont, garrett, goshen, grissom afb…

hicksville, hillsdale, huntington, jonesville, kalida…

kendallville, knox, lagrange, liberty center, ligonier…

lima, litchfield, marcellus, medaryville, melrose, mendon…

mentone, mexico, mishawaka, montpelier, napoleon, nappanee…

new carlisle, new haven, north judson, north manchester…

ohio city, ossian, ottawa, pandora, paulding, peru…

plymouth, roanoke, rochester, sherwood, shipshewana…

south bend, south whitley, spencerville, sturgis, swanton…

syracuse, three rivers, topeka, tri-lakes, van wert…

wabash, walkerton, warsaw, wauseon, white pigeon…

winamac and winona lake.

————————————————–

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Latest outlook increases wind risk

Damaging wind probability map from 1300Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Red area: 30%. Yellow area: 15%. Remaining area: Less than 15%. Highlighted counties: Northern Indiana NWS office county warning area. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 8:54 a.m. EDT. Read about probability figures.

The probability of damaging straight-line winds in northeastern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio today and tonight has increased, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:54 a.m. EDT.

For the entire 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office, the outlook increases from 15 percent to 30 percent the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. A probability of 30 percent is on the high end of the “slight risk” category. You can get some detailed information what the probability figures mean on the SPC website, but here’s a brief explanation: If you consider that on a typical June 18, the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds occurring within 25 miles of you is probably one percent or less, the probability today is at least 30 times higher than on a typical day.

Don’t underestimate the damage potential of 58 mph straight-line winds! According to the Beaufort Wind Scale, winds of 48 mph to 55 mph can uproot trees and cause considerable structural damage. So even though the risk of tornadoes today is low, it’s a good day to pay attention to weather watches and warnings.

Most of Indiana has slight risk of severe storms today

0600Z Day 1 convective outlook map

See an important update to this story: Latest outlook increases wind risk

The northern three fourths of Indiana, as well as large areas of other states, have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2:10 a.m.

The slight risk area includes the entire 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office.

In Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, the primary threats are damaging straight-line winds of 50 knots (58 mph) or more and hail of one inch in diameter or larger. The probability of either happening within 25 miles of a point is 15 percent. The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point in Indiana, Michigan and Ohio is two percent. Read more about outlook probabilities.

The numbers are a little higher to the west. Parts of Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and the Dakotas — while still in a slight-risk area — have a 30 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail and a five percent probability of a tornado.

SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon or tonight, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:52 a.m.

Anyone in the slight risk area should have a way to be informed of any watches or warnings that the NWS issues today, especially if they are involved in outdoor activities.

The SPC will update its convective outlooks for today by 9 a.m. and again at 12:30 p.m., 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. EDT.