Widespread damage from Sunday storms

From the National Weather Service northern Indiana office:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
652 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013 /552 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013/

...WIDESPREAD DAMAGE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA...
...STORM SURVEYS TO BE CONDUCTED MONDAY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA HAS RECEIVED MANY
REPORTS OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE TORNADIC DAMAGE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORM SURVEYS WILL BE
CONDUCTED MONDAY FOR THE AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO
DETERMINE IF THE DAMAGE WAS FROM A TORNADO OR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE.

A side note from me: If you have photographs of damage from the Nov. 17 storm, send them to the northern Indiana office using this email address:
w-iwx.webmaster@noaa.gov

Photos of storm damage

Below are photos of damage I personally saw. It’s not the worst of the damage in the Fort Wayne area, just the damage I came across while serving as a SKYWARN storm spotter. I’ll post the photos of others to this blog and additional information on the damage reported throughout the area covered by the northern Indiana NWS office.

Barkley Road, near S.R. 101 (south of Monroeville). Photo by Jay Farlow (W9LW), IMO SKYWARN
Hessen Cassel Road, near U.S. 27 (just south of Fort Wayne). Photo by Jay Farlow (W9LW), IMO SKYWARN

Hessen Cassel Road, near U.S. 27 (just south of Fort Wayne). Photo by Jay Farlow (W9LW), IMO SKYWARN

Hessen Cassel Road, near U.S. 27 (just south of Fort Wayne). Photo by Jay Farlow (W9LW), IMO SKYWARN

Hessen Cassel Road, near U.S. 27 (just south of Fort Wayne). Photo by Jay Farlow (W9LW), IMO SKYWARN

Particularly Dangerous Situation tornado WATCH issued

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
INDIANA
FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY
LOWER MICHIGAN
WESTERN OHIO
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1120 AM UNTIL
800 PM EST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BLOOMINGTON INDIANA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAGINAW MICHIGAN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

Rare high risk of severe weather today, including tornadoes

Convective outlook map

All of Indiana, plus parts of Michigan and Ohio, including all 37 counties served by the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) office, are at high risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EST today and 8 a.m. EST tomorrow, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 7:59 a.m. today.

High risk areas in a convective outlook are not unusual in Oklahoma but it’s very unusual for the SPC to indicate a high risk in Indiana.

The outlook gives the following probabilities for the high-risk area:

  • Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point: 30%.
  • Probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point: 10% or greater.
  • Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point: 45%
  • Probability of wind gusts 65 knots (74.8 mph) or greater within 25 miles of a point: 10% or greater.
  • Probability of hail 1″ or larger within 25 miles of a point: 15%

What do these percentages really mean? Read this excellent explanation on the SPC website.

A Public Severe Weather Outlook that the SPC issued at 3:49 a.m. EST captures the situation well in layman’s terms. You can read it below. I’m off to worship after I write this post but I’ll try to add additional information to this blog as time permits. Meanwhile, stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, and/or your favorite local broadcast station for any watches or warning. Also, the northern Indiana NWS office is putting out a constant stream of information on its Facebook page and Twitter feed.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is forecasting
the development of a few strong, long-track tornadoes over parts of
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into Michigan today through
early tonight.

The areas most likely to experience this activity include:

Illinois
Indiana
Northern and Western Kentucky
Lower Michigan
Ohio
Southeast Wisconsin

Surrounding this greatest risk region, severe thunderstorms will
also be possible from parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas,
Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee northeastward across much of the
Appalachians to the lower Great Lakes.

A potent jet stream disturbance with wind speeds in excess of 120
knots will sweep east across the central Plains today and across the
Ohio Valley and northern half of the Appalachians tonight. As this
occurs, a surface low now over the mid-Mississippi Valley will
rapidly intensify and accelerate northeastward, reaching northern
Michigan early tonight and western Quebec Monday morning.

East of the low, increasingly warm and humid air at the surface will
spread north across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, contributing to
very unstable conditions over a large part of the east central
United States. Coupled with daytime heating and ascent provided the
jet stream impulse, the environment will become very favorable for
severe thunderstorms --- especially along and ahead of fast-moving
cold front trailing southward from the low into the mid-Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys.

Given the degree of thermodynamic instability, and the strength and
character of the winds through the depth of the atmosphere, many of
the storms will become supercells. Some of these will be capable of
producing strong tornadoes --- in addition to large hail and swaths
of damaging surface winds.

The storms are expected to consolidate into one or two extensive
lines later today into tonight --- extending the threat for damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes eastward into the Appalachians by early
Monday.

State and local emergency managers are monitoring this potentially
very dangerous situation. Those in the threatened area are urged to
review severe weather safety rules and to listen to radio,
television, and NOAA Weather Radio for possible watches, warnings,
and statements later today.

NWS issues high wind warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
408 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM IOWA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR
AREA BY THIS EVENING... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH FOR A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025-171715-
/O.UPG.KIWX.WI.Y.0006.131117T1700Z-131118T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KIWX.HW.W.0001.131117T1800Z-131118T0600Z/
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...
SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...
FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...
SPENCERVILLE
408 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013 /308 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY. THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL
SHIFT TO WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

* HIGHER GUSTS AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.

IMPACTS...

* POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

* DAMAGE TO TREES POSSIBLE.

* DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES SUCH AS SEMI-TRUCKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.