Monthly Archives: July 2013

SKYWARN

Slight risk of severe wind, hail, flash flood this evening and overnight

Categorical map from Day 1 Convective Outlook

See an update to this story (slight risk area expands)

Approximately the northern third of Indiana, as well as much of many other states in the Midwest, are at slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:47 a.m. EDT today. Northeastern Indiana counties in the slight risk area include Allen, Huntington, Wabash and all Indiana Counties to the north and west of those. Adams, Wells, Jay and Blackford counties are not included. The eastern edge of the slight risk area follows the Indiana/Ohio state line, so no Ohio counties are included.

The primary threats are straight-line winds or wind gusts of at least 58 mph and hail of at least one inch diameter. There’s a 15 percent probability of either occurring within 25 miles of any point in the slight risk area. The probability of a tornado in Indiana is less than two percent. This risk for severe thunderstorms will be greatest this evening and overnight, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:26 a.m. EDT.

Advise your family, friends and neighbors to be alert for possible severe thunderstorm watches and warnings this evening and tonight. Unfortunately, the Fort Wayne NOAA Weather Radio transmitter is still operating with a degraded signal, so it’s likely that many Fort Wayne-area residents cannot rely on their weather radios to wake them with overnight warnings. 

SKYWARN storm spotter activation will likely be needed this evening through overnight, so spotters, check your gear and if you can, try to get some rest before the storms arrive!

In addition to the wind and hail threats, flash floods are possible, due to very high rainfall rates that overnight storms might bring.  People in flood-prone areas need to remain alert and be prepared to evacuate.

We’ll get our next look at the slight risk at around 12:30 p.m., when the SPC issues an updated convective outlook. During such updates, the SPC often redraws the risk areas, which means counties not included now could be included then.

SKYWARN

Weather radio tower work planned this week

NOAA Weather Radio logo

A tower climber and other technicians plan to meet this Thursday and Friday to repair Fort Wayne’s NOAA Weather Radio station. A meteorologist at the northern Indiana National Weather Service office gave me that information this morning. If the weather cooperates, the tower climber will repair connections to the weather radio station’s antenna high on one of the towers in northwest Fort Wayne. Read more about the problem in an earlier post.

SKYWARN

June brings SKYWARN activations

After a quiet May, we had a couple of SKYWARN activations in IMO SKYWARN’s quadrant two in June.

June 12 activation

At about 5 p.m. on June 12, the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued a rare “particularly dangerous situation” thunderstorm watch. IMO SKYWARN went into standby mode shortly thereafter. Unfortunately, the ACARTS 146.88 MHz repeater, which serves as the primary repeater for IMO SKYWARN’s quadrant two net, began having issues. A net control station quickly moved the operation to the FWRC 146.76 repeater.

That evening, the NWS issued a tornado warning for northern Allen County. Several stations from the area provided important visual confirmation that the warned storm was not producing a tornado. At various times during the evening, other stations provided reports of hail. At 12:24 a.m., the IMO SKYWARN operation ended. Forty-four stations participated in the June 12 operation, including WX9IWX at the NWS northern Indiana office and stations representing several counties in the quadrant.

June 27 activation

June 27, severe thunderstorms again threatened the area. IMO SKYWARN quadrant two began standby mode at 8:22 p.m. Eight stations made reports, including hail and rainfall totals, which were relayed via telephone to the northern Indiana NWS office because WX9IWX was not staffed. An additional 14 stations checked in near the end of the operation when a net control station invited all on-air stations to identify themselves.

As was the case June 12, net control stations never deemed it necessary to activate a directed net, due to the relatively low volume of reports. Nonetheless, during the height of the storm in Fort Wayne, the frequency remained mostly silent except for spotter reports and weather statement transmissions. Operators should be proud of the discipline they demonstrated. Standby mode ended at 9:58 EDT.

Mode reminder

As a reminder, during standby mode, a SKYWARN net control station monitors the frequency, transmits weather updates and assists with inquiries and the relay of reports to the NWS. During standby mode, stations are welcome to use the repeater as they wish, including discussing weather phenomena that doesn’t meet normal reporting criteria. If the repeater gets busy with reports, a net control station may begin a directed net, during which stations should transmit only with the permission of the net control station. You can find detailed descriptions of both modes in the IMO SKYWARN quadrant two on the FWRC website.

Finding the net

June’s activations provided an opportunity to test our plan to switch to an alternate repeater when necessary. Unfortunately, when the primary 146.88 MHz repeater fails, it won’t always be possible for all stations to hear an announcement that SKYWARN is changing to the 146.76 MHz repeater. You might just have to check each frequency. Because, as you read above, stations often remain silent during periods of severe weather, it will sometimes be the case that the only way to determine if SKYWARN is on frequency is to transmit your call sign and see what happens. Net control stations understand that, so don’t hesitate to do so.

Where’s WX9IWX?

As you have probably noticed, the amateur radio station at the NWS office is not always staffed during periods of severe weather. That’s because there just aren’t enough trained ham volunteers to staff the station during every severe weather event. There’s not much we in the Fort Wayne area can do to help, because of the time it would take to travel to the office. When WX9IWX is not on the air, we must use other means to get reports to the office, such as telephone or various Internet services. As a spotter, you may either ask a net control station to relay your report or call it in yourself and then transmit it on the air so other spotters will know what you reported.

SKYWARN

Weather radio problems continue

Photo of tower climber on tower

See an update to this story.

Today I received a bit more information from the northern Indiana National Weather Service office regarding problems with the NOAA Weather Radio transmitter in Fort Wayne. One of the meteorologists explained that the problem is in one or more of the connectors in the multiple-bay antenna high up on a tower. The replacement parts are available, but the repair requires a professional tower climber and safe climbing weather (four hours without threat of thunderstorms). Unfortunately, every time the climber has been available, the weather has not cooperated. As soon as they can get the climber and the right weather at the same time, they’ll repair the connections. Until then, the signal from the Fort Wayne NOAA weather radio transmitter will be weaker than normal.

SKYWARN

Slight risk gone for today, returns tomorrow

Categorical map from 3:58 p.m. Day 1 Convective Outlook

No part of Indiana remained at risk of severe weather as of 3:58 p.m. EDT, when the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued an updated Day 1 Convective Outlook. As you can see on the map at right, the slight risk area moved eastward to north central Ohio counties served by the Cleveland NWS office.

Beginning at 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, extreme northern Indiana, extreme northwestern Ohio and much of southern lower Michigan will be at slight risk of severe weather, according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the SPC issued at 1:23 p.m. today. In the Fort Wayne area, the nearest counties included are northern Whitley as well as all of Lagrange, Steuben, Noble and DeKalb. Severe storms will be mostly likely tomorrow night, north of U.S. 24 in Indiana and Ohio, with damaging winds the primary threat, according to the Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:27 a.m. today. Our next updated look at tomorrow’s risk comes at about 2 a.m. tomorrow, when the SPC issues the first Day 1 Convective Outlook of the day.

Beginning at 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, a slight risk of severe weather will exist for most of the southern two thirds of Indiana and almost all of Ohio until 8 a.m. Thursday, according to the Day 3 Convective Outlook that the SPC issued at 3:30 a.m. today. In the Northern Indiana office’s forecast area, severe storms will be mostly likely Wednesday along and southeast of U.S. 24 in Indiana and Ohio in the afternoon and early evening.

SKYWARN

Slight damaging wind risk today in extreme northeastern Indiana, northwesten Ohio

See an update to this story (slight risk ends for IWX area).

Damaging wind probability map from 12:30 p.m. EDT convective outlook
Yellow area: 15 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Brown area: 5 percent probability.

Extreme northeastern Indiana and most of northwestern Ohio is at slight risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. tomorrow, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:13 p.m. The reason for the slight risk is a 15 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point in the slight risk area. The risks of large hail and tornadoes are negligible.

In its 12:13 p.m. update, the SPC reduced the size of the slight risk area and shifted it eastward. As a result, the only Indiana counties now included are eastern Lagrange, Steuben, eastern Noble, DeKalb, eastern Whitley, Allen, Wells and Adams. The slight risk area also includes most of the northwestern quarter of Ohio, including all Ohio counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office.

SPC meteorologists wrote that the remnants of an overnight, organized complex of thunderstorms were tracking east-southeastward across parts of lower Michigan, northwestern Indiana and central Illinois at midday. Strong heating was occurring ahead of this activity, where dewpoints were in the upper 60s, indicating a large amount of water vapor in the air. In addition, atmospheric instability was forecast (mixed-layer convective available potential energy of 2,000 joules per kilogram or greater). While the timing was uncertain at the time of the outlook update, the SPC indicated that potential exists for redevelopment of intense storms along the remnant outflow boundary.

Remain alert for the possibility of severe thunderstorm watches and warnings, especially this afternoon.

SKYWARN

Surprise! Slight risk of severe weather today

See an update to this post (slight risk area revised).

Uncharacteristically, I didn’t look at today’s Day 1 Convective Outlook until just now (around 11:30 a.m.) and discovered, to my surprise, that it puts northern Indiana at a slight risk of severe weather. I’ll post details after the next convective outlook comes out at around 12:30 EDT, but here’s a quick synopsis:

In approximately the northern fourth of Indiana today and tonight, there’s a 15 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. The hail probability is five percent and the tornado probability is less than two percent.

The southern-most counties included are (from east to west) Putnam and Van Wert Counties of Ohio and the Indiana counties of Adams, Wells, Huntington, Wabash, Miami, Cass, White, Jasper and Newton. Counties of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two that are in the slight risk area are the Ohio counties of Paulding, Putnam and Van Wert and the Indiana Counties of Allen, Whitley, Huntington, Wells and Adams.

SKYWARN

Fort Wayne weather radio transmitter continues to experience power issues

NOAA Weather Radio logo

See an update to this story.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
Statement as of 8:56 AM EDT on July 02, 2013

…Fort Wayne weather radio transmitter continues to experience power issues…

The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter at Fort Wayne…WXJ-58 at 162.550 MHz…will continue to broadcast at low power due to equipment problems at the site. This is resulting in a degraded broadcast signal from the transmitter. The problem has been identified and parts have arrived…although several hours of dry weather is required for the repair. The situation is being monitored on a daily basis to see when the work can be done.

Alternate NOAA radio broadcasts around The Fort Wayne region are as follows: WXM-98 from Marion at 162.450…KXI-94 from Angola at 162.425 MHz…WXJ-90 from Cridersville at 162.400 MHz. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. This statement will be updated when more information is available.