Wednesday’s risk of severe weather increased from “slight” to “moderate”

Map from convective outlook showing areas of slight and moderate risk

The risk of severe weather in northern and central Indiana has increased from “slight” to “moderate,” according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:32 p.m. EDT today. The outlook indicates a 45 percent probability of severe weather with 25 miles of any point in the moderate risk area, up from 30 percent in the outlook issued early this morning. In addition. there continues to be a 10 percent risk of significant severe weather in the area. For more, including the definition of “significant” and the importance of the probability figures, see my blog post from earlier today.

For IMO SKYWARN members, the new moderate risk area includes all of quadrants two and three, the Indiana portions of quadrant four and most of the Indiana and Ohio portions of quadrant one.

As a SKYWARN storm spotter, I’ve been looking at these convective outlooks for more than a decade. In my experience, the SPC indicates a moderate risk in northern Indiana only a couple of times per year. So, a moderate risk is not something to ignore.

The next look at tomorrow’s severe weather probabilities comes at around 2 a.m. tomorrow, when the SPC issues its first Day 1 Convective Outlook of the day.