Severe weather risk reduced to “slight”

The NWS Storm Prediction Center issued a new convective outlook at 3:36 p.m. It removes the moderate risk of severe weather that was present in earlier convective outlooks. About three fourths of Indiana, however, continues to have a slight risk of severe weather, including Allen County, Indiana.

Convective outlook map
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

As you can see in the map above, the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds is now no greater than 30 percent and that’s for areas well south and southwest of the Fort Wayne area. There remains a slight (5%) risk of a tornado in parts of Indiana from Fort Wayne to the south and southwest.

So what happened? The meteorologist’s discussion indicates that the line of thunderstorms moved east faster than expected, causing the storms to arrive in our area before the sun had heated the atmosphere enough to create the instability required for severe weather. With all the rain and cloud cover we have now, temperatures for the rest of the day will be too low for severe weather to develop.